Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 530 IN
EFFECT FOR MAINLY E TN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40...WITH COVERAGE HOLDING
AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE WATCH. ALSO SEEING SPOTTY TSRA POP
ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU OUT OF THE WATCH AREA. MOST ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
BE FOR THE MOST PART DEVELOPING ON THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. VERY
UNSTABLE AREAWIDE WITH BETTER SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY...BUT OTHER
PARAMETERS SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY BE LESS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NE TN AND SWRN VA. FORECAST GRIDS ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WHICH SHOULD BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...CARRIED PREVIOUS THINKING FOR 50 PERCENT OR LESS
COVERAGE OF TSRA IN THE SHORT TERM...DECREASING FROM THE W-NW THIS
EVENING. 12Z MOS MINS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID
...WITH A SLIGHT LOWERING TOWARD A MOS BLEND PREFERRED OVER THE
COOLEST MOS NUMBERS. SUNNY AND CONTINUED WARM...ABOVE CLIMO...ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS ARE DIFFERING
WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO ONLY SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE ON THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LOW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS...AS AM UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
AFTERNOON FORECAST PERIODS. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY DID NOT DEVIATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MAV/MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  91  63  89  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  87  61  84  60 /  30  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  85  60 /  30  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  84  56  79  57 /  30  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

TG/TT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-291000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) SUN JUN 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
507 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ATHENS              35.45N 84.55W
06/28/2009                   MCMINN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE FROM JUST
            WEST OF ATHENS TO JUST NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD. REPORTED BY
            DISPATCH.

&&

FERRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E MARYVILLE           35.75N 83.92W
06/28/2009                   BLOUNT             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE FROM
            DOWNTOWN MARYVILLE EAST TO ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
            TOWNSEND. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

FERRELL

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