Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AS
UPPER TROF BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID SOUTH. ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VIEWING AREA CLOSER TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
POPS A LITTLE HIGHER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TAPERED POPS
BACK FOR TONIGHT AS THE ACTION SETTLES DOWN BUT STILL HAD
PROBABILITY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMP
BLEND DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. ON FRIDAY A RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ANY CONVECTION.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT BOTH DAYS...LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEY...BUT
WILL GO A BIT BELOW GFS MOS...WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE.

THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS WEAK. THE GFS KEEPS
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS GA/EAST TN/CNTRL KY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  71  95  71  95 /  50  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  67  93  70  93 /  60  30  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  67  92  70  93 /  60  30  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  64  88  64  90 /  70  40  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

99/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-180745-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
337 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009 /237 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST VA
AND EAST TN THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

VAZ001-002-005-170915-
LEE-SCOTT-WISE-
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING CITY OF NORTON...LEE...
SCOTT AND WISE COUNTIES...

AT 359 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
VIPER TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARROGATE-SHAWANEE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  JONESVILLE BY 435 AM EDT.
  PENNINGTON GAP BY 440 AM EDT.
  BIG STONE GAP BY 500 AM EDT.
  WISE BY 510 AM EDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

DGS