Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD...AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION.  THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING.  AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION.  AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SERIES
OF WEAK IMPULSE MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...CREATING CONTINUE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE
PERIOD...AND BY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE MRX
CWA.  THIS SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE CONVECTION TO A
MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   69  87  68  87  68 /  40  50  20  40  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     68  84  66  85  67 /  50  40  20  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN             67  84  66  85  67 /  40  40  20  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    64  81  63  83  63 /  60  40  20  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
507 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-120915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
507 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009 /407 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF
50 MPH OR MORE AND HAIL OF PENNY SIZE OR LARGER. BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AND NEAR ALL STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HELPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

TT/TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W SUNBRIGHT           36.24N 84.69W
06/11/2009                   MORGAN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND               35.18N 84.87W
06/11/2009                   BRADLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  35.45N 84.60W
06/11/2009                   MCMINN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

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