Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST DIFFICULT IN THE SHORT TERM...ENOUGH 0-3KM CAPE/LOW LEVEL
CAPE/ AND SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND SFC BNDRY
TO GENERATE SOME SHORT LIVED WEAK TORNADOES. THIS WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXIT THE EC MN AREA
THROUGH 5-6 PM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NICE TROUGH/VORT
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN MN/WRN WI. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY OT LINGER INTO NORTHWEST WI INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SFC
FNT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT WRN MN THIS EVENING AS WELL. UPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...COTNINUING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL COTNINUE THE LIKELY POP
SCENARIO OVER THE AREA AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER POPS INTO
WISCONSIN FOR FRIDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THEN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AS
WELL. LONGER RANGE HAS NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY COMPLICATED AND PREDOMINANTLY FULL OF
POOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL THINGS ARE
DIVIDED INTO THREE TIME FRAMES... THE PRE-FRONTAL WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ONGOING... A PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH FROPA AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA... THEN THE ARRIVAL OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WORK
INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AT THE MOMENT...
RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR IN VICINITY OF THE AXIS OF PCPN WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING... SO UNSURE IF IT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES. LATER TONIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL AT
THIS POINT... SINCE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING COULD LEAD TO QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS... SO TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY WHILE NOT GOING OVERBOARD AT THIS POINT. MORE
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO AND/OR DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW... AND WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SHRA DEVELOP LATER
IN THE DAY WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/TRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
201200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
427 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THIS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES. MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH MID-EVENING. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MAINLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.

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