Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST EUROPEAN...GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL OUTPUTS ALL INDICATE
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THEN FOLLOWED BY COOL NORTHWEST AIRFLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MN. INDIVIDUAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST...WHILE OVERALL AREA WAS
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH.  SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WILL HOLD OFF THE PRECIP FROM
SPREADING TO FAR INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SATURATE AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM NORTHWARD.  DEW POINTS HAD RISEN IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA.

KEPT SOME SMALL POPS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER PORTION OF OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MOISTURE
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR CWA.

THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATES NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD INTO MN TONIGHT WITH BREEZY SRLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AND EVEN GUSTIER NW WINDS BEHIND. ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
FADING TO MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EARLY IN THE TAF...KAXN AND
KRWF MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDER AND SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KTS BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOSE PUNCH FROM 02Z TO 04Z...BUT A SWATH OF SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT SHIFTS EAST. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONVERGENCE IN CTRL MN INTO WRN WI LATE TONIGHT WILL OFFER LESS
WINDS AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS...WITH THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
AT TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES...INCLUDING KMSP NEAR THE MORNING RUSH.
WINDS TO BE BREEZY FROM THE WNW TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BKN
CU IN THE 3.5-5 KFT LAYER.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JVM/MTF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
011200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
536 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE NIGHT. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COOL FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             6 NNE CHOKIO            45.66N 96.15W
07/31/2009  E0.75 INCH       STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MTF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064-065-010015-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW
MEDICINE-
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CHIPPEWA...DOUGLAS...LAC QUI
PARLE...POPE...STEVENS...SWIFT AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES THROUGH
715 PM CDT...

AT 622 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORRIS...APPLETON AND MADISON. THE STORMS WERE
MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9642 4526 9632 4520 9612 4539 9614
      4542 9573 4611 9572 4611 9518 4465 9548
      4465 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 275DEG 33KT 4517 9613

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

MNZ041>043-047>049-054>058-064-065-067-073-010115-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MEEKER-MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE-
707 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER CHIPPEWA...DOUGLAS...
KANDIYOHI...LAC QUI PARLE...MEEKER...MORRISON...POPE...REDWOOD...
RENVILLE...SIBLEY...STEARNS...STEVENS...SWIFT...TODD AND YELLOW
MEDICINE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA...BENSON
AND MONTEVIDEO.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE LINE OF STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POSSIBLY POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4631 9449 4512 9449 4447 9468 4453 9560
      4462 9562 4462 9639 4533 9601 4543 9576
      4610 9576 4611 9516 4637 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 275DEG 37KT 4507 9555

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

MNZ049>051-010215-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-
845 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER BENTON...SHERBURNE AND EASTERN STEARNS
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

AT 843 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SARTELL. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SARTELL.
  SAUK RAPIDS.
  MAYHEW.
  PARENT.
  DUELM.
  FOLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4581 9376 4553 9376 4549 9421 4565 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 260DEG 25KT 4559 9420