Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AND ABOUT TO
MOVE THROUGH KAXN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ATTM AND IN THE ZONE OF BEST LOW LEVEL WAA.
INDICATED SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING FOR SITES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 2 HOURS OF TEMPO THUNDER FOR KMSP AND KRNH. VCTS MENTIONED AT
KEAU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A DECENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT
PREDOMINATE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE TEMPO GROUPS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING OUT
OF THE NW TODAY AFTER FROPA. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES GUSTS
WELL INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE FOR KAXN...WITH AROUND 20 FOR KSTC AND
KRWF. EASTERN SITES WILL SEE WINDS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
14 TO 16 KNOT RANGE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009/

TIGHT WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
WITH CONVECTION RIDING JUST NORTH OF THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER
SOUTHERN MN. SOME ELEMENTS DEVELOPING BASK TO THE SW OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN CLOSER TO MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER SD. RUC13 TAKES
MOST OF LAYER 850-700 WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF AN ADDITIONAL ADVECTION ZONE
DEVELOPING OVER SW MN AS THE FRONT SAG INTO THAT AREA.
DIFFERENTIAL DIV QUIETS STRONG OVER CENTRAL MN AS WELL..BUT THIS
WEAKENS WITH TIME THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN MN. WILL PLACE SOME
HIGH POPS FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SE MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. SOMEWHAT NORTH-SOUTH THICKNESS
ORIENTATION NOT THE BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA...BUT BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WNW ORIENTATION. RUC AND NAM A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE GFS WITH THIS...AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE
CORRECT. THUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA BY AFTERNOON.

SHOULD BE DECENT CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM NW CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TREND OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN PART OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GEFS 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY
TRENDS SHOW BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THE
00Z ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWING A LITTLE MORE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
BACK TO THE NW CONUS BY THE END OF THE RUN. BASICALLY THIS
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO NEXT WEEK. WAVES
WILL BE HARD TO TIME..THUS ARGUES FOR POPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPS STILL AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
425 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
250930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
425 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN AN AREA FROM AROUND ALBERT
LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. LARGER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
906 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HAIL             6 S HUDSON              44.88N 92.74W
07/24/2009  M0.88 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SECOND ROUND OF HAIL

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
907 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     HAIL             COTTAGE GROVE           44.82N 92.93W
07/24/2009  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

MNZ070-077-078-241500-
DAKOTA-GOODHUE-RICE-
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

AT 907 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF NORTHFIELD. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NORTHFIELD.
  NEW TRIER.
  DENNISON.
  NERSTRAND.
  WASTEDO.
  BOMBAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4445 9243 4421 9304 4457 9329 4467 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 308DEG 32KT 4449 9314