Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.UPDATE...

ADDED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SODAK AS RAPIDLY APPROACHING WRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELD
INSTABILITY DOWN SOMEWHAT...YET SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATES
MLCAPES ACROSS SE SODAK HAVE RISEN TO OVER 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. 18Z LAPS SOUNDING FROM SE SODAK SHOWS ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING
AND IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH LONGER TO SEE STORMS TAKE OFF. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET STREAK MOVING TOWARD SW MN AT
THE MOMENT. ALSO SEEING STRONG MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SW
MN...RESULTING IN SOME NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING 50 KTS OVER SRN MN. ALL OF THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MN CWA. FOR
WI...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE IN MN...BUT IT WILL BE LATER
BEFORE THEY GET INTO THE MAIN ACTIVITY.

FOR TIMING OF FRONT...DID A NAM/GFS BLEND...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO WRN MN AROUND 21Z...THE TWIN CITIES AROUND 03Z...AND OUT OF WI
PORTION OF CWA CLOSE TO 12Z. TRIED TO TIME POPS SIMILAR TO
THIS...WITH 60/70 POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT OF COURSE
WILL MAKE LOWS TONIGHT TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY LIKE THE IDEA FROM THE
MAV/MET OF HAVING RATHER MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
WI...TAILING OF TO THE MID 50S OUT WEST. COLDER AIR WILL BE COMING
IN WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SECOND...MORE ROBUST SHOT OF COLD AIR. IN
FACT...NAM AND GFS BRING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 0C THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WRN UP OF MI...THIS IS ABOUT 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...SO
EXPECT A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS ERN
CWA...ESPECIALLY IF IT ENDS UP BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
HAS AT THE MOMENT. HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE REDUCTIONS MAY BE NEEDED IF IT LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE BOTH DAYS. AS FOR RAIN...COLDEST AIR ALOFT
WILL BE OVER WI FRIDAY...AND STEEP LAPSE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OVER NE CWA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH
A TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE EAST AND SHARP RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...NE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
AND RETURN FLOW WILL BE COMING BACK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOW 80S NEXT AFTER THE COLDEST DAY FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE WEEKEND HIGH REALLY DOES NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY. GIVEN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO COME BACK
FOR NEXT WEEK...HAVE PUT UP MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SPLIT OVER THE CWA. PRES FALLS AND MAIN
WARM ADVECTION IS AFFECTING CENTRAL MN NEAR SFC LOW LIFTING
TOWARD N MN. COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MN SEPARATE
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH SW MN. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
OVER SW MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEVELOP MORE INTO
NORTHERN IOWA WITH EVENTUAL STRONGER INSTABILITY. FEEL THAT MOST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL MISS KMSP BUT WILL INCLUDE A CB IN THE
TAF WITH SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER A LITTLE BETTER OVER
KRNH...BUT LESS AT KEAU AS THE SYSTEM LOOSES LOW LEVEL CONV.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH VSBYS
DOWN TO IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ONLY AT KSTC AT THIS POINT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS IN THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER CENTRAL MN.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/JPR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
725 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ST JOSEPH               45.57N 94.32W
07/14/2009  M2.80 INCH       STEARNS            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RECIEVED 2.8 INCHES OF RAIN FROM AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

MPG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MNZ085-092-093-150130-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER FARIBAULT...FREEBORN AND
STEELE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

AT 725 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRICELYN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE AREA... AND COULD AFFECT
WESTERN FARIBAULT COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN FARIBAULT...FREEBORN AND SOUTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BRICELYN...ALDEN...CONGER...MANCHESTER...
ALBERT LEA...CLARKS GROVE...GENEVA AND HOLLANDALE...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 9
PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9311 4353 9309 4351 9420 4384 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 248DEG 36KT 4359 9385

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
733 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N ST CLOUD            45.60N 94.18W
07/14/2009  M3.00 INCH       BENTON             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPD

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