Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SODAK AS RAPIDLY APPROACHING WRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELD
INSTABILITY DOWN SOMEWHAT...YET SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATES
MLCAPES ACROSS SE SODAK HAVE RISEN TO OVER 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. 18Z LAPS SOUNDING FROM SE SODAK SHOWS ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING
AND IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH LONGER TO SEE STORMS TAKE OFF. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET STREAK MOVING TOWARD SW MN AT
THE MOMENT. ALSO SEEING STRONG MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SW
MN...RESULTING IN SOME NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING 50 KTS OVER SRN MN. ALL OF THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MN CWA. FOR
WI...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE IN MN...BUT IT WILL BE LATER
BEFORE THEY GET INTO THE MAIN ACTIVITY.

FOR TIMING OF FRONT...DID A NAM/GFS BLEND...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO WRN MN AROUND 21Z...THE TWIN CITIES AROUND 03Z...AND OUT OF WI
PORTION OF CWA CLOSE TO 12Z. TRIED TO TIME POPS SIMILAR TO
THIS...WITH 60/70 POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT OF COURSE
WILL MAKE LOWS TONIGHT TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY LIKE THE IDEA FROM THE
MAV/MET OF HAVING RATHER MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
WI...TAILING OF TO THE MID 50S OUT WEST. COLDER AIR WILL BE COMING
IN WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SECOND...MORE ROBUST SHOT OF COLD AIR. IN
FACT...NAM AND GFS BRING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 0C THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WRN UP OF MI...THIS IS ABOUT 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...SO
EXPECT A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS ERN
CWA...ESPECIALLY IF IT ENDS UP BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
HAS AT THE MOMENT. HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE REDUCTIONS MAY BE NEEDED IF IT LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE BOTH DAYS. AS FOR RAIN...COLDEST AIR ALOFT
WILL BE OVER WI FRIDAY...AND STEEP LAPSE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OVER NE CWA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH
A TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE EAST AND SHARP RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...NE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
AND RETURN FLOW WILL BE COMING BACK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOW 80S NEXT AFTER THE COLDEST DAY FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE WEEKEND HIGH REALLY DOES NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY. GIVEN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO COME BACK
FOR NEXT WEEK...HAVE PUT UP MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS. KAXN/KRWF/KSTC WILL BE UNDER
THE GUN FOR TS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO 21Z...WITH ACTIVITY THEN POSSIBLE
AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...AS
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS INDICATE SUPERCELL MODE. WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE..GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY TONIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
151800-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 3 PM...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MNZ042-043-142000-
MORRISON-TODD-
142 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES THROUGH 300
PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF VERNDALE
TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAPLES TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAUK
CENTRE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CLOTHO.
  WEST UNION.
  STAPLES.
  PHILBROOK.
  MOTLEY.
  CUSHING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4631 9455 4634 9442 4629 9434 4626 9434
      4623 9439 4617 9436 4616 9390 4577 9503
      4578 9513 4599 9515 4616 9507 4637 9509
      4638 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 244DEG 41KT 4645 9497 4620 9495
          4581 9513

TRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
219 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MNZ049-142000-
STEARNS-
219 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

AT 219 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF NEW MUNICH. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FREEPORT.
  FARMING.
  ALBANY.
  AVON.
  HOLDINGFORD.
  OPOLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4577 9428 4553 9418 4547 9483 4567 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 250DEG 34KT 4562 9469

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MNZ043-050-142015-
BENTON-MORRISON-
226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

AT 223 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF FORT
RIPLEY TO 3 MILES NORTH OF SOBIESKI TO UPSALA. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SOBIESKI.
  BOWLES.
  BOWLUS.
  ROYALTON.
  PIERZ.
  BUCKMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4626 9435 4623 9439 4617 9436 4616 9381
      4599 9381 4598 9379 4583 9378 4579 9462
      4597 9458 4631 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 277DEG 38KT 4625 9431 4596 9442
          4578 9455

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MNZ048-142045-
POPE-
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

AT 305 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF STARBUCK. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  STARBUCK.
  LONG BEACH.
  GLENWOOD.
  VILLARD.
  WESTPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 9
PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4576 9538 4576 9514 4551 9514 4543 9559
      4558 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 237DEG 41KT 4556 9554

LS