Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MESSY FORECAST AHEAD FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
JUST WEST OF KAXN ATTM WITH SCATTERED RW/TRW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND LIKELY STILL BE WEST OF KMSP BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH LOWER 70S NOTED FROM SW MN UP TO NEAR KAXN.
THIS MOIST AXIS WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI VULNERABLE FOR
EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG. HAVE INDICATED THIS FOR KRWF
THROUGH KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND USED TEMPO GROUPS THIS EVENING FOR KRWF AND
KSTC AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KMSP AS WELL AS KRNH AND
KEAU. CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING FOR THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH INCREASING W TO NW SURFACE WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009/

A TRICKY CONVECTION FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRONG STORMS FAR NW
IOWA JUST NORTH OF THE 12C H7 TEMP AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONV.
RUC ANALYSIS OF 850 MB WINDS SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR MORE SW/WSW
WINDS FARTHER NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL MN...WHILE MAINTAINING MORE
S WINDS OVER EASTERN NEB. STRONG SW 850 WIND CONTINUE INTO EAST
CENTRAL MN. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE GREATEST SVR WX THREAT WOULD
BE OVER SW OR SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER MUCH OF MN CWA WITH A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OVER
WEST CENTRAL. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD
FRONT WITH STILL REMAINING STRONG SHEAR. NO WELL DEFINED HOT PROD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND CONV WILL BECOME LESS DEFINED LATER
THIS EVENING. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND CONV OVER NW IA COULD
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THIS AREA AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
TRAINING WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE.

OTHERWISE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION MAY BE
MAINTAINED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AS WESTERLY UPPER JET
RIDES ACROSS N MN. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH RIDGE PASSING
OVER AREA. SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY BUT
AS RIDGE PASSES BY BUT THIS MAY BE CONFINED MORE TO SW MN, BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROF RIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ACTUALLY A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY BUT
PERHAPS A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. TEMP TRENDS APPEAR TO BE NEAR THE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOOKING AT
THE ENSEMBLE ANOMALY ANALYSIS. PERHAPS A BIT BELOW AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
101845-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
AREAS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
933 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

MNZ083-092-100315-
BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-
933 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

AT 932 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF LEWISVILLE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WINNEBAGO.
  AMBOY.
  GOOD THUNDER.
  MAPLETON.
  MINNESOTA LAKE.
  ST CLAIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9425 4385 9433 4406 9434 4416 9384
      4379 9376 4376 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 253DEG 38KT 4386 9441

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

MNZ083>085-100400-
BLUE EARTH-STEELE-WASECA-
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

AT 1008 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST CLAIR. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ST CLAIR.
  PEMBERTON.
  WALDORF.
  JANESVILLE.
  OTISCO.
  NEW RICHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9333 4390 9324 4388 9381 4411 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 260DEG 33KT 4404 9389