Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SLANTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS NWRN/CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON ATTENDANT WITH SCATTERING OF LOW
CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 80S/MID 70S RESPECTIVELY.
HAVE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE MN/IA
BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE...WHERE MUCAPES ARE PROGGED TO
APPROACH 2000 J/KG AND AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KTS. TORNADIC THREAT IS ALSO STILL PRESENT...NAMELY
SURROUNDING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR FROM FAIRMONT TO ALBERT
LEA...WHERE 0-3KM EHI VALUES ARE APPROACHING 4 M2/S2. BY
MIDNIGHT...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD MAINLY BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MN/WI BORDER...WITH A MOSTLY DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUPPORTS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +22C TO +24C RANGE. EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TOPS
THE RIDGE. HAVE ORIENTED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION
OF THE CWA /ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL MN/. A SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE INTERACTION.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA/TROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY
DOMINATES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ENSUING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT H85 TEMPS AROUND +20C.

THE NEXT FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN THE
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. HAVE A PREFERENCE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH BRING THE SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE CENTERED
30-40 POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE ISOLD
SHRA/TS SURROUNDING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED COVERAGE DO NOT WARRANT CHANCE POPS.

THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO PERIODIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WEAK IMPULSES MIGRATE
THROUGH THE RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...AFTER
THE ACTIVITY WANES EARLY SATURDAY...NONE OF THESE APPEAR WORTHY FOR
A MENTIONABLE POP UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAINLY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS LIFT NE. VSBYS LOWERIGN TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS AS WELL. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES...BUT A FEW CBS WILL BE AROUND VCNTY
KMSP...KRNH...KEAU IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY AXIS BUILDS INTO
EAST CENTRAL A MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HINT OF SFC PRES
FALLS MOVING INTO SW WISCONSIN AS WELL. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BECOME COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN BEHIND JUST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
CLEARING THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL
MN THE LAST TO CLEAR.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
221100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WOULD BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS...TO MANKATO...TO EAU
CLAIRE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ENOUGH TIME TO
DESTABILIZE BEFORE SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

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