Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
206 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN TODAY AND EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
CNTRL WISCONSIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD
SCOURED OUT CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA.  DEWPOINTS REMAINS IN THE
60S...THUS WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY TO OCCUR
LATER TODAY. BY EVENING...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO ABOUT 600 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE WEAK WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR/ABOVE THE
SURFACE. IF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DO OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAINS. BOTH THE WET-BULB TEMP AND FREEZING LEVEL ARE TOO HIGH FOR
LARGE HAIL.

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF CONUS...WILL BUILD NORTH
OVER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY.  700 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO PLUS
10 DEGREES...WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100
RANGE.

EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF U.S.
SPLIT UPPER AIR FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OF THE JET STREAM INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MORE RIDGE-RIDER THUNDERSTORMS/CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. CEILINGS HAVE
DETERIORATED BELOW 010 ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LOWER FOR KRWF...KMSP AND KEAU
AS WELL. MVFR FOG WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
230915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
401 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL.

TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CONRATH                 45.38N 91.04W
06/22/2009                   RUSK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF BROKEN ARROW ROAD AND HIGHWAY 27 FLOODED.
            WILLARD TOWNSHIP AREA HAS MANY FLOODED FIELDS.

&&

DWE