Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 150048
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALC053-150058-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-091215T0045Z/
ESCAMBIA AL-
648 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
ESCAMBIA COUNTY. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL 
TOLL FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3100 8724 3119 8727 3122 8677 3121 8677
      3120 8676 3120 8674 3119 8673 3120 8671
      3119 8670 3100 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 262DEG 23KT 3109 8715

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MOST OBS IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA INDICATING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE 1.75 INCHES.
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL TAP INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL EASILY CAUSE FLOODING AS THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED WITH MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN A
THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BACK INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. /13

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
DEVELOP A GULF LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THUS KEEPING MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GULF COAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE CAVEAT THAT HIGHER
POPS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE GULF LOW...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND
SENDS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOWS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. /13

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DONT EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MORNING TUESDAY. NOT A
LOT OF REPORTS FROM THE MARINE AREA BUT LOCAL WEB CAMS ALONG THE
BEACHES SHOW LOW VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION IN SYNOPSIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES FOLLOWING THE
TUESDAY COLD FRONT AND KEEP THE WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND AROUND
OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  63  41  62 /  90  90  20  00
PENSACOLA   64  68  46  63 /  90  90  30  05
DESTIN      64  69  48  64 /  70  80  40  05
EVERGREEN   59  62  38  60 /  90  90  20  05
WAYNESBORO  53  57  36  57 /  80  80  10  05
CAMDEN      57  59  37  58 /  90  80  10  05
CRESTVIEW   62  67  45  65 /  80  90  30  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE AREA...WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
BELOW ONE HALF MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY RISING ABOVE ONE MILE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ONE HALF MILE THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX IN...BRINGING HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WITH
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE WEEKENDS RAINS...THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA...WITH A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. A GENERAL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCUMULATE BEGINNING LATER TODAY...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA ARE
CURRENT IN FLOOD STAGE...WITH SEVERAL MORE ABOVE ACTION STAGE...AN
INDICATION OF NUISANCE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY...ENDING AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AGAIN CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FOUR INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN...MORE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE ACTION AND FLOODING
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1236 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALZ053-055-056-141930-
CONECUH-MONROE-CLARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONROEVILLE...
1236 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
CONECUH...MONROE AND EASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3 MILES EAST OF MANILLA TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MINEOLA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
FINCHBURG...URIAH...FOUNTAIN...MEGARGEL...KEITH...FRANKLIN...RIVER
RIDGE AND MONROEVILLE THROUGH 130 PM CST.

WIND GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AS THE LINE CROSSES THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ALSO COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN
BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.
THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
524 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

ALZ059-062-150030-
ESCAMBIA-UPPER BALDWIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
BAY MINETTE
524 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND
ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA THROUGH 630 PM...

AT 520 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR ACROSS ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA AND NORTHERN
BALDWIN COUNTY. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME OF THE LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE... LITTLE
ROCK...ATMORE...RABUN...AND STOCKTON.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PROLIFIC RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.