Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.AVIATION FOR 20/18Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIFR MORE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY SURROUND THE LIGHTER PRECIP AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF
IFR OR MVFR IN MIST MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AROUND DEPRESSIONS AND
NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. /77

*******************************PREVIOUS***************************

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEAK SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED
WEAK TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS THE
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THIS KEEPS
FORECAST AREA IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY BUT WITH
LESS SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE FINALLY
DROPPED BELOW 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS...MORE
PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OR EVEN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE WILL DOT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY
HAVE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH AND AROUND 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TONIGHTS LOW. /11

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS
AMONG THE SPECTRAL MODELS INDICATING THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE ENTER THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE CUTOFF LOW ACTS TO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GULF BY TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD AND SOUTH...THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ALIGNED FROM THE TEXAS COAST...NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE. AFTER MONDAY...OUT OF RESPECT FOR A
WESTWARD PROPAGATING WEAK EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE GULF...WE WILL STILL
HAVE CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS GOING IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN 50% DAYTIME CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE
BEING BETTER ESTABLISHED TUE THRU SAT. IT WILL BE A BATTLE...BETWEEN
THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES AND UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
POP/WX PLAYS OUT THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. /10

&&

.AVIATION FOR 20/12Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DOT THE AREA AT SUNRISE...MORE NUMEROUS NEAR THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN MORE NUMEROUS INLAND LATER IN THE DAY. MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIFR MORE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CORES ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SURROUND THE SHOWERS. A FEW
PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE WILL
AFFECT THE USUAL PLACES. /11

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA TO REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 10
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A WEAKENING EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WILL SEND THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
NORTHEAST BY MID WEEK AS THE WAVE DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC.  WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 TO
2 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHTNING HAZARDS WILL IMPACT AGENCIES DOING ANY OUTDOOR WORK/FIRE
PLANNING INITIATIVES. LOWEST HUMIDITY REMAINS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS WITH DAYTIME DISPERSION BEING FAIR TO AVERAGE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS AS DISPERSION BECOMES POOR. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  74  88  73 /  50  20  50  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74 /  40  20  40  20
DESTIN      86  77  88  75 /  40  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   86  70  88  68 /  50  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  86  70  88  69 /  50  30  60  40
CAMDEN      86  70  88  69 /  50  40  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-211200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHERLY OVER THE
AREA AGAIN TODAY.  A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK INCH OR MORE OR RAIN THAT
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN LOW PLACES AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY EARLY MORNINGS TO EARLY EVENINGS. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...BOTH IN
RURAL SETTINGS AND URBAN AREAS.  .

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER NETWORKS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ALZ053-055-201815-
MONROE-CLARKE-
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN MONROE AND EXTREME
EASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF MANISTEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PERDUE HILL...CLAIBORNE...FINCHBURG...FOUNTAIN...KEITH AND FRANKLIN
THROUGH 115 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
155 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ALZ062-FLZ001-003-201945-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-UPPER BALDWIN-
155 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS FOUND A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF BAY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WALNUT HILL...OAK GROVE AND BRATT THROUGH 245 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.