Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 121846
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
146 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

FLC091-121900-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-090812T1900Z/
OKALOOSA FL-
146 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY...

AT 146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 7 MILES WEST OF MARY
ESTHER...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF NAVARRE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARY ESTHER...6 MILES WEST OF WRIGHT...9 MILES WEST OF OCEAN CITY
  AND 9 MILES WEST OF FORT WALTON BEACH BY 200 PM CDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3040 8679 3060 8678 3063 8645 3048 8647
      3046 8653 3043 8655 3044 8658 3042 8657
      3041 8652 3043 8647 3039 8648 3040 8651
      3039 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 268DEG 7KT 3043 8677

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH A DISTINCT MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES OUR REGION
TODAY...IT WILL SHUNT THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS (VALUES OVER 2
INCHES) TO ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF  INTERSTATE 65. WITH THE
CONTRIBUTION OF PVA COMBINED WITH MLCAPES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG AND THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EAST ALIGNED WITH THE HIGHER
PW VALUES AND BEST UPPER FORCING. ACCORDINGLY THAT IS WHERE THE
LIKELY POPS ARE PLACED. POPS TAPER OFF TO THE 40S IN THE FAR NW
WHERE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN QUICKER... HELPING TO LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE PRELIMINARY MICROBURST RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS MODERATE.
THEREFORE...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH. WHILE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRECLUDES THE
MENTION OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS ALWAYS IN THIS
PATTERN...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...POPS
WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LINGERING 20-30 POPS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF PERSISTENT ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLING WEAK SFC TROUGH. LOWS NEAR
70 FAR INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z THU LATEST GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY LOCATED FROM NEAR KMSY TO JUST NORTH OF KMGM
PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND FILL THROUGH SAT...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS ALIGNED FURTHER TO THE EAST STRETCHING FROM SW GA TO
SOUTH OF KPNS...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER EASTERN
AND OFFSHORE SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THU THROUGH SAT. DUE TO THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH SAT. TO THE WEST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS NOTED FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT POSSIBLY
GIVING WAY TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY BY SAT AFTERNOON. AS
THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO FILL IT BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST PULLING THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE CWFA. BY LATE SUN
INTO MON MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK TO
MODERATE TROP WAVE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF
GIVING WAY TO DEEPER MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PDS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE.
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE TERMINALS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING THUNDER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING...LEAVING PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ONCE AGAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE MARINE
WATERS BY TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STRONGER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. A GRADUAL BUILD IN
SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED SOUTHEAST WIND. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TROPICAL LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A LARGER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
WHILE THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO ENTER SUCH
EXTREMES INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF GUIDANCE EITHER NOT SHOWING SUCH A FEATURE OR MUCH DIFFERENT IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  72  91  71 /  60  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   89  74  88  74 /  60  30  50  30
DESTIN      89  78  89  77 /  60  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  90  69 /  60  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  91  69  94  68 /  40  20  10  20
CAMDEN      90  70  95  69 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
131030-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 60 NM-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
520 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.