Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MOST
ANYWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK WHICH WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY UPDRAFT TO BECOME SUSTAINED OR ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER PULSE TYPE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOW DRIER AIR ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000-850 MB
MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 16 G/KG. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SOME HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF WHERE WBZ IS AROUND 10500 FEET. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID
90S...DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAYS WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /11

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY THU
AND FRI AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL
MEAN KEEPING AN ISOLATED POP FOR THOSE DAYS AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EVEN WITH THE
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AND MODELS SHOW EASTERLY WAVES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z...SOME PATCHES OF FOG AROUND JUST BEFORE 4 AM AND
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF IFR IN FOG BEFORE JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. GENERALLY VFR
TODAY EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LASTING AROUND 30 MINUTES OR SO.
MOSTLY VFR TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL FOGGY PATCHES OVER THE
INTERIOR ZONES. /11

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE OCCURRING OVER THE MARINE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE CUSTOMARY DIURNAL PATTERN CONTINUING UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
EARLY IN THE MORNING WHERE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE. ALSO IN AND NEAR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE SHOULD GET AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVE
HEIGHTS. AT THIS TIME AM ONLY GOING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 3
FEET.  /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74 /  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   92  75  91  74 /  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      89  78  88  78 /  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   93  71  92  69 /  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  94  71  95  69 /  30  10  20  20
CAMDEN      94  71  95  70 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-051100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 60 NM-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND BRIEF BUT
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUST IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.  STRONGER STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD...MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
LIGHTNING THE GREATEST HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
223 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ALZ056-042015-
CONECUH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...
223 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CONECUH COUNTY...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NICHBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BELLEVILLE...RANGE...LENOX...I65 AND AL 83 AND I65 AND US 84 THROUGH
315 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
250 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ALZ057-042030-
BUTLER-
250 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTLER SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
STARLINGTON...BOLLING...I65 AND AL 106 AND GEORGIANA THROUGH 330 PM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
256 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ALZ061>064-042045-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOWNTOWN MOBILE...
256 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHICKASAW...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PRICHARD...COCHRANE BRIDGE...MOBILE INFIRMARY...AIRPORT AND
GOVERNMENT AND LADD STADIUM THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.