Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 162122
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ALC013-041-162131-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-090716T2130Z/
BUTLER AL-CRENSHAW AL-
422 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CRENSHAW AND
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BUTLER AND CRENSHAW WILL 
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3179 8645 3195 8655 3197 8650 3198 8642
      3203 8641 3207 8633 3206 8630 3206 8629
      3198 8630 3198 8619 3194 8617 3190 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 241DEG 16KT 3195 8631

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LEFT OVER FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS OVER THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH...JUST NOW ENTERING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT
IT TO DO SO AS IT MAKES IT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. FURTHER SOUTH...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PRIOR TO THE
OUTFLOW REACHING THOSE AREAS. LEFT LIKELY POPS IN FOR MOST ZONES
THROUGH 00Z...THEN TAPERING OFF AS THE OUTFLOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP (PERHAPS ORIGINATING FROM DEVELOPING
CONVECTION IN ARKANSAS)...THIS TIME POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION AS
THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES...TURNING THE FLOW
MORE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN OVERNIGHT...HIGHER IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO ANY POTENTIAL
COMPLEX. ONCE AGAIN...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL MCS AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FURTHER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND AL...MOVING
INTO OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES
TOMORROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR CONVECTION (PRECIP
WATERS OF 2.25 INCHES AND MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG). ANY LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ONLY AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY 35-45 MPH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE CARRIED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK...GENERALLY IN THE 87-90
DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE FRONT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY
ATYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...SO IS THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SO A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SYNOPTICALLY SUPPORTED.
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY SAT NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE AREA. A ROUND OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S SUN THROUGH TUE (ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES) WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR SUN THROUGH TUE AM. CANNOT ASK
FOR MUCH BETTER IN JULY ALONG THE GULF COAST A MODERATION IN TEMPS
IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WEST THEN VARIABLE
LESS THEN 10 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. /32

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD FRI AND EARLY SAT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS AT TIMES
BOTH FRI THROUGH SAT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. RH VALUES WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  87  73  90 /  40  60  50  30
PENSACOLA   77  87  75  90 /  40  60  50  40
DESTIN      79  83  79  87 /  40  60  50  50
EVERGREEN   73  87  71  89 /  50  70  50  10
WAYNESBORO  73  88  70  89 /  50  70  50  10
CAMDEN      73  87  71  88 /  50  70  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-171130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
627 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING STABILITY OVER THE REGION AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...BRIEF LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN A LOW IMPACT TO PERSONS
WORKING OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE
AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS THE COAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND TO SMALL CRAFT OPERATIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND AREA BAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED THREATS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1023 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ALZ064-161600-
LOWER BALDWIN-
1023 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 1022 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 1 MILE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CLEAR...MOVING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
POINT CLEAR...BATTLES WHARF...HOUSTONVILLE AND TURKEY BRANCH THROUGH
1100 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
224 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ALZ051-162015-
CHOCTAW-
224 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHOCTAW COUNTY...

AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACHIN...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
ROBJOHN...INDIAN SPRINGS...DEAS...CHOCTAW CITY...EDNA AND LAVACA
THROUGH 315 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
259 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ALZ054-162045-
WILCOX-
259 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF REHOBOTH...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MILLERS FERRY...CANTON BEND AND BOYKIN THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ALZ057-162115-
BUTLER-
335 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 333 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF STARLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
I65 AND AL 106...BOLLING...GEORGIANA...CHAPMAN...WALD AND AVANT
THROUGH 415 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.