Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
316 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SFC FRONT NOW RIGHT ALONG
MS-AL BORDER AND MOVING EASTWARD. PRE-FRONTAL SFC PRES TROF IS OVER
OUR ERN ZONES AND ASSOC WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF DEEPEST MOISTURE.
APPARENTLY...BEHIND THE SFC PRES TROF DRY AIR IS WINNING THE BATTLE
AND HAS MIXED WELL DOWN INTO BOUNDARY LAYER. PER OUR LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSES...MLCAPES APPEAR TO HAVE MAXIMIZED IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE THE PAST FEW HOURS AND INITIATION HAS BEEN SCANT THUS FAR. IT
IS CLEAR THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG SEA-BREEZE OVER NW
FL PANHANDLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LATEST MOB WRF SUPPORTS THIS. IF
CONVECTION DOES INITIATE RIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT IT WILL ALSO LIKELY
DO SO EAST OF I-65 AFTER 21Z. THAT IS OUR LATEST FORECAST THINKING.
SOME STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE BUT ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.
THIS VERBIAGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING CLEARS
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS AS LATE AS 06-08Z TIME
FRAME...AND THEN PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT NLY WINDS.  HOWEVER...ABSOLUTE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEA AND BAY-
BREEZE TSTMS SUPPORTED BY A 10% CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE EFFECTIVE ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE WHERE COOLER WATER COMES CLOSER TO
THE COAST (ASTUTELY MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT). ANYWAY...SMALL
CHANCE POPS REFLECTED OVER COASTAL COUNTIES BOTH FRI AND SAT
AFTERNOONS.

DID MAKE SOME DEPARTURES FROM GUIDANCE. WENT ABOVE MAV MOS ON MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY WITH NLY PBL WIND BY ABOUT 2-3 DEG (F) ON
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS VERY CLOSE TO BEACHES.
MOSTLY CORRECTED APPARENT SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OTHER PERIODS. NO
ADDITIONAL DEPARTURES OTRW.  /23

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD GIVES WAY TO A DEVELOPING AND
PROGRESSIVE SRN PLAINS TROF THAT BUILDS EWD BUT FILLS A BIT WHILE
DOING SO. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE RE-INTRODUCED
REGION-WIDE AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS TO E AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN
EARNEST ON MONDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTE THE NEW ECMWF (28.12) IS MORE
PRONOUNCED AND DEEPER WITH ITS SOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SO
MUCH THAT FULL SCALE L/WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR W BY END OF
PERIOD WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER MS VLY REGION IN RESPONSE.
AGAIN...GFS DOWNPLAYS THIS SOMEWHAT. IF THIS WERE TO EVOLVE IN THIS
MANNER RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT FOR BOTH THU AND FRI.
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM. /23

&&

.AVIATION....(18Z ISSUANCE)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR LEVELS INTO THE EVENING WHEN A WEAK
FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. OTRW...CAVOK. /16

&&

.MARINE...SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...SLOWING OVER THE MARINE FA. MORE ENERGY
SWINGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL GIVE THE FRONT THE FINAL WEAK PUSH TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
MARINE ZONES FRIDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY WEAK AS WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN TX MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
BY MONDAY. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWEST HUMIDITY EXPECTED IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. AS PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED...HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAXIMIZE DISPERSION VALUES
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH LOWER RH VALUES MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  88  65  90 /  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   69  88  66  89 /  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      71  85  70  87 /  30  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   66  89  61  90 /  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  59  85  59  89 /  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      62  86  60  89 /  10  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
953 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-291100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
953 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-65 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LINE WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON...MAINLY EAST OF MOBILE
BAY AND OVER TO DESTIN.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

ALZ062-282245-
UPPER BALDWIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...
508 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSSROADS...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
HURRICANE...CROSSROADS...CROSSROADS...CARPENTER...WHITEHOUSE FORKS
AND STAPLETON THROUGH 545 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE RAIN UP TO AN INCHA NA DA
HALF PER HOUR...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR
BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.