Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...WITH ACTIVITY ONGOING ALREADY AND
MOVING EAST...AM EXPECTING AN EARLIER END TO THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA. OVER THE EAST...THE ACTIVITY MAY GO INTO
THE EVENING...BUT NOT THAT MUCH. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
TO FIRE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD TO THE AREA.

16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1055 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-281100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1055 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...

...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS AREA BEACHES AND
OFFSHORE...

...RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH
SLOWER MOVING STORMS TODAY...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...

THE PRIMARY TIME FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION WILL BE UNTIL NOON TODAY.
WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM FROM FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ALONG
NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SO RADAR DETECTABLE STORMS NEED NOT BE
PRESENT. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A WATERSPOUT IN A BOAT...NAVIGATE AWAY AT
RIGHT ANGLES TO THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF THE VISIBLE SPRAY RING.
THE WATERSPOUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL
OCCUR WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS TODAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE FOR THE DAY.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...AND MORE ON THE WAY...MINOR RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ON THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED TODAY BUT MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ052-053-062-271645-
WASHINGTON-CLARKE-UPPER BALDWIN-
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...THEN
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CLARKE AND NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTIES...

AT 1119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TOINETTE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 1145 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ062-064-FLZ001>003-271715-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL
ESCAMBIA-
1149 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN BALDWIN OVER
ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 1148 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAY SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BARRINEAU PARK THROUGH 1215 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

FLZ003>006-271800-
INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW...
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN OKALOOSA AND WESTERN
SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 1213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GALLIVER...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
GALLIVER...HOLT...BAKER...MILLIGAN AND CRESTVIEW THROUGH 100 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ALZ057-271930-
BUTLER-
141 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER BUTLER COUNTY...MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BOLLING...WALD...I65 AND AL 10...GREENVILLE AND I65 AND AL 185
THROUGH 230 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.