Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 151803
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
103 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MSC131-151815-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-090515T1815Z/
STONE MS-
103 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR STONE COUNTY...

AT 102 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RAMSEY SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WIGGINS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITES CROSSING BY 115 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3075 8917 3091 8934 3091 8891 3087 8888
      3071 8887 3068 8896 3068 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 149DEG 18KT 3077 8894

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE SE WITH LOLVL RIDGE BETTER PRONOUNCED OVER THE E AND SE STATES.
IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5 INCHES ON AVG)
ACROSS THE NRN GLF COAST...LAPS DATA IS INDICATING THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. LAPS MU CAPES 3000 J/KG WERE
HIGHEST OVER SE MS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TRENDING HIGHER
DUE TO EFFECTIVE INSOLATION. CONSIDERING MOISTURE/POSITIONING OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION...BECOMING LESS IN COVERAGE OVER THE NRN GOM AND
INCREASING OVER THE LAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS COASTAL
SEABREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. TSTM OUTFLOWS AND
COLLISION=>ENHANCED LIFT OF SUCH WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM FORMATION. WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS...AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE AFTNS...FOR SOME STORMS
BECOMING STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE. WET BULB ZEROS 11.5KFT SUGGESTS
THAT OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL >1 IN DIAMETER WILL BE LOW.
HOWEVER...IF RADAR INDICATES 60+ DBZ CORES GETTING UP AOA 23.7
KFT/LEVEL OF -20C AIR...INSTANCES OF HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL
COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND UPON CORE COLLAPSE.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK...SO EXPECT PULSE TYPE TSTMS THAT DO NOT
SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEP ROTATION FOR TORNADOES.

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

FORECASTERS MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP/WX GRIDS GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS INITIALLY...MAINTAINING THE BETTER COVERAGES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  68  84  65 /  40  20  50  50
PENSACOLA   84  72  84  68 /  40  20  50  30
DESTIN      83  71  83  69 /  40  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   85  66  84  64 /  50  30  70  50
WAYNESBORO  84  66  83  62 /  60  30  70  50
CAMDEN      85  67  83  63 /  60  30  70  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-161200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
700 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TODAYS WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN
CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
CHANGE...STAY TUNED. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO THE FAST FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AT THIS TIME ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.