Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATES TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SO FAR...FORECAST
GENERALLY ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR TOO LOW
DEWPOINTS AND THE HANDLING OF A BLOB OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD LEAVE ABUNDANT BOUNDARIES
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO INITIATE UPON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE) ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD JOIN
BLOB CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA. PRETTY MUCH A SUMMERTIME STANDARD EXPECTED...WITH MORE
CONVECTION FIRING THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-131200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ENDURING THROUGH VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS BUT MAY PRODUCE 45 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA TO DIME-SIZED
HAIL.

ALSO...SOME STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF DUMPING THREE INCHES PER
HOUR OVER ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. SLOW STORM MOTION...SOUTHEAST 5 TO
10 MPH...WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL PROBLEM.
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY BECAUSE SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE FLOOD
WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN
CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME..THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
MAY CHANGE...SO STAY TUNED.

THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS  SOUTHEAST
WINDS PERSIST AND INCREASE IN SPEED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH TUESDAY.

ALZ055-059-062-FLZ001-003-121630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1042 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING
ESCAMBIA COUNTY...MONROE COUNTY...BALDWIN COUNTY...SANTA ROSA
COUNTY...

AT 1040 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...OVER A WIDE AREA
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATMORE NEAR BOONEVILLE TO NEAR
APPLETON...BREWTON...AND FLOMATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...VOCATION...SARDINE...CENTURY...CHUMUCKLA...FLOMATON...I65
AND AL 113...BARNETT CROSSROADS...WAHL...WALLACE...FOSHEE...ROCK
HILL...RIVERVIEW...POLLARD...OSAKA...KIRKLAND...KEEGO...EAST
BREWTON...DIXONVILLE...BREWTON...APPLETON...MUNSON...JAY...BERRYDALE
AND ALLENTOWN

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.