Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 110307
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1007 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

ALC023-MSC153-110345-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-090511T0345Z/
CHOCTAW AL-WAYNE MS-
1007 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES...

AT 949 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF YANTLEY TO 14 MILES WEST OF 
STRENGTHFORD. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE MOST SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF STRENGTHFORD 
AND WILL BE EFFECTING THE STRENGTHFORD AREA OF WAYNE COUNTY BY 
AROUND 1020 PM...WITH ANOTHER SEVERE STORM LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES 
WEST OF HINTON..EFFECTING THAT AREA OF CHOCTAW COUNTY BY AROUND 1030 
PM. 

  OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  MULBERRY...YANTLEY...CYRIL AND WHISTLER BY 1025 PM CDT...          
  PUSHMATAHA AND HIWANNEE BY 1030 PM CDT...  
  HALSELL BY 1035 PM CDT...
  ROCK SPRINGS BY 1040 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3229 8808 3170 8839 3170 8846 3158 8846
      3146 8851 3146 8893 3183 8893 3185 8863
      3189 8848 3231 8843 3232 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 270DEG 23KT 3235 8845 3162 8902

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 287 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT FOR PORTION OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AN MCS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESE TOWARD THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. THUS WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ESPECIALLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST THEY GO AS DIURNAL COOLING CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF LONGER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. 13/JC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)FIRST THINGS
FIRST...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SITUATION ACROSS THE CONUS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WAS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS...NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST-EAST FROM BAJA TO THE
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS TO OVER CA...A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS NOTED...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER
WESTERN CA...AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CA. SEVERAL RIPPLES WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE FIRST MOVING
OVER THE LOWER/MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. MORE IS NOTED OVER
THE US ROCKIES. A SEMI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AT
THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE ENERGY OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE PRECIP ENDING BY 06Z.
THIS PRECIP AND OVERNIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARDS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS MORE
ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...A GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MARINE FA
IS POSSIBLE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ONGOING ACTIVITY MONDAY
EVENING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN CUTTING OFF THE RAIN RELATIVELY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS...WITH GOOD MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY ON - FROM PREVIOUS)THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MID WEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED (MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING) SUMMER-LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. /22

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE STAYED WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG AT MOB AND BFM. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES SHIFTS GRADUALLY
SOUTHWARD.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN INTO THE COMING WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST CHANE FOR RAIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CREATE A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MIXING LAYER WILL KEEP DAYTIME DISPERSIONS FROM RISING TOO HIGH. THE
SOUTHWARD SAGGING BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MIXING LAYER WIND DIRECTIONS HARD TO
PIN DOWN...MAINLY IN THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT PATCH
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MOST AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  86  67  84  67 /  20  50  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   72  86  70  82  70 /  10  40  20  30  20
DESTIN      73  84  72  82  71 /  10  40  10  30  10
EVERGREEN   66  84  64  83  63 /  20  70  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  81  62  83  64 /  30  60  20  40  20
CAMDEN      66  83  63  82  63 /  30  70  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

29/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-111200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LATER TODAY AND DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT. DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH GOOD
AFTERNOON HEATING A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LARGE TIDAL RANGE...AN OUTGOING TIDE AND A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN
CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.