River Flood Warning 78, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 120224
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
824 PM CST WED NOV 11 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM AND NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE
 AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. 
  
.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC023-025-129-130224-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0077.091112T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.091112T1800Z.091115T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
824 PM CST WED NOV 11 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR COFFEEVILLE DAM
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 7PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.1 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 31.5 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AT 29.0 FEET, PASTURELAND IN THE AREA WILL BECOME FLOODED AND LIVESTOCK NEED TO 
BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.  

$$

ALC023-025-129-130224-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0078.091114T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.091114T0900Z.091116T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
824 PM CST WED NOV 11 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 7PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.0 FEET 
* NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 24.6 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE 
  THEREAFTER.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 121522
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
922 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ALABAMA...
 
  TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY AFFECTING CHOCTAW...CLARKE AND WASHINGTON 
  COUNTIES.

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC023-025-129-121552-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0078.000000T0000Z-091112T1522Z/
/LRYA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
922 AM CST THU NOV 12 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY
* AT 7AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.5 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND
AREA METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW STATUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF
ALABAMA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. A WEAK INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
STATUS LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 750 MB THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE STATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES. NO RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF IDA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH OF I-10...WITH UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH OF I-10. /22

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REMAINS OF IDA HAVE MERGED WITH A
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY...WITH A WHOLE BUNCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW NOODLING AROUND THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE
MORE UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EAST...FROM JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...TO OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GETS OVER THE MISS RIVER GETS
THE SAME TREATMENT...ENDING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS...THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SEE NO
REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
WESTERN UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HANGING TOUGH...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
WESTERN ENERGY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THE SURFACE RIDGES GET
PUSHED EAST ENOUGH THAT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA...INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
DIVERGENCE IN MAINLY THE PATH OF THE NOW ORGANIZED UPPER LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW STARTING THE COMING WEEK
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE...WHILST THE ECMWF HAS IT CENTERED OVER THE
NE/KS STATE LINE. THROUGH TUESDAY MORN...THEN ECMWF IS ADVERTISING
THE UPPER LOW TAKING AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK...WHILST THE GFS TAKES
THE LOW DIRECTLY EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING A FRONT STARTING ACROSS
THE FA BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN ORIENTATION...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A SW TO NE
ORIENTATION OVER THE CONUS AS IT PASSES...A MORE FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION FOR WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS.

WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST SINCE YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)LOW STATUS CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA WILL MAINTAIN LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A BLEND OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 11/1800Z...WITH THE
STATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING BEYOND 11/1800Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TODAY AT ALL THE TAF SITES. /22

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
REMNANTS OF IDA WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA
BAYS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OUT TO 20
NM AND 6 TO 9 FEET BEYOND 20 NM ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA...ALONG WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP DAYTIME RH VALUES FROM DROPPING
BELOW 40 PERCENT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING...INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INTO THE COMING WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  47  70  46  72 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   70  51  71  49  73 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      70  54  69  58  70 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   67  46  69  43  73 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  70  45  67  39  71 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      67  45  67  43  73 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

22/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-121230-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
617 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IN THE WAKE OF IDA...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 6 TO
9 FEET BEYOND 20 NM...CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK TO MARINERS.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES
TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY
FLORIDA FROM THURSDAY EVENING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.