River Flood Warning 67, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 222017
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
317 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND AFFECTING MOBILE COUNTY.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC097-222047-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-091024T0900Z/
/SARA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
317 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
* AT 3PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
540 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE PERSISTENT SFC HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS GRIP AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE
IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS. LOCAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING GOOD VEERING IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SIGNIFYING THE BEGINNING OF SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO INCREASING LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE 850-500 MB LAYER
REMAINS RATHER DRY. DO NOTE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFFSHORE
AND WHILE THESE COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BEGIN TO MOISTEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE MS
RIVER BY 00Z...THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305 K LAYER. THIS IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MARKED INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES (SE MS IN
PARTICULAR) THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES STAYING RATHER LOW IN
THE EAST.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE ENTERING OUR SE MS ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK. THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING WILL
BE AIDED BY A 40 KT 850 MB JET WHICH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA (PRECIP WATERS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES). POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND STORM TOTALS
OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65 WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FURTHER EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
RATHER HIGH (1 HR AROUND 3 INCHES/3 HR BETWEEN 3.5 AND 5.5
INCHES)...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILES ARE
DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH 0-1KM SRH
INCREASING TO 250-300 M2/S2 OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING...WITH ANY MLCAPE OF SIGNIFICANCE (AROUND 500 J/KG) BEING
LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AS
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO WARRANT A LOW END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. A SOLID LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER...WITH A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE COAST. THE
MAIN LINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE WESTERN
HALF DRIES OUT QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE FREE OF RAIN BY
SUNSET. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
OCCURRING. BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS. THIS COULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO...MAINLY WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER IN THE MORNING AND EAST OF
THE ALABAMA RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID 70S NORTHWEST ZONES...AND AROUND 80 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST
ZONES. /22

[WEEKEND]...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN IT'S
WAKE. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 74...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH OF I-10 AND THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

[MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING BY MID WEEK AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT MID WEEK AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. /22

&&

.MARINE...NOW APPEARS THAT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN WINDS NEAR 20 KT. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED MOBILE BAY BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIXING BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE 25-30 KT WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KT. BUOY 42007 HAS BEEN SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS
HOLDING NEAR 7 FT WITH WAVE PERIODS AS HIGH AS 8 SECONDS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AL AND NW FL COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING.
34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...STAYING MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. DAYTIME MIXING WILL
ATTEMPT TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS...BUT STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR TO LOW END VFR STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
INCREASING AT MOB/BFM AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN
06-12Z. CLOSER TO 12Z AT PNS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
THE CONVECTION. WINDS ARE ALSO OF NOTE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
TO APPROACH 15 KT TODAY OUT OF THE SE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE MUCH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
WINDS AT 2000 FT STAY AROUND 30 KT. WHILE ENOUGH MIXING IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO
BE AN ISSUE.  34/JFB

&&

.FIRE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD THE COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDIFIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  69  80  50 /  40  80  90  10
PENSACOLA   80  72  80  55 /  20  60  90  20
DESTIN      80  72  80  58 /  10  30  80  40
EVERGREEN   80  68  80  49 /  20  60  80  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  74  46 /  60  90  80  10
CAMDEN      78  66  78  47 /  20  80  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
815 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-231200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
815 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK
OF INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND ENERGY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE STORM...PRIMARILY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR IS PRESENT SO THAT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED NUSIANCE FLOODING.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR. NUISANCE
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
COULD POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.