River Flood Warning 58, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
549 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CREATE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY WELL NORTH OF HWY 84. WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. WENT ABOVE
MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS (CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS) FOR THE INTERIOR
ZONES SINCE IT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BETTER
INSTABILITY...AND THE HIGHER PW VALUES. ALSO WITH INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CONVECTION...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WENT WITH MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND POPS IN THE COASTAL ZONES
DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND CONVECTION EXPECTED.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AREA WIDE BUT HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR
ZONES...FOR ANY LINGERING EVENING STORMS AND AS THE BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. POPS
MAY HAVE TO BE FURTHER INCREASED LATE NIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE.
/04

.LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHAT EVOLVES IN THE MESOSCALE...
ALONG WITH DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SUCH...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST INTERESTING AS WE START THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF WET WEATHER. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH LEVEL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ON THU...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF RAIN COOLED BOUNDARIES FROM ANY
NOCTURNAL (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS >1.5 INCHES BEING ADEQUATE ALONG WITH A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUPPORTS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY ON THU. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. CONSIDERING MOISTURE/LIFT
AND INSTABILITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE MET
MOS POP GUIDANCE FOR THU.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID SOUTH LOOKS TO WASHOUT IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK...BEING REPLACED WITH
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE THAT BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS SAT/SUN. AS THE ONE WE CURRENTLY HAVE TO OUR
NORTH...THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR...BEING A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY BE SEEING MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND FROM SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING RAIN
COOLED...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE DEPOSITED BY STORMS ROLLING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THESE BOUNDARIES CAN PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR TSTMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WENT WITH THE EXTENDED
RANGE MOS GUIDANCE POPS SAT-MON AS WE CANNOT GET OVERLY SPECIFIC ON
HOW THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT THIS FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF TSTMS TUE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...MID/UPPER 60S ON
AVERAGE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW AREAS SEEING DAILY HIGHS BREAKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. SUMMER IS
HERE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z TODAY FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AROUND 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG A BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /04

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  70  87  68 /  20  20  30  10
PENSACOLA   84  71  85  69 /  10  20  20  10
DESTIN      80  72  81  71 /  10  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   84  67  87  66 /  50  30  40  10
WAYNESBORO  85  69  87  67 /  40  40  40  20
CAMDEN      87  68  87  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-071200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...WHICH
KEEPS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TODAY. A DISTURBANCE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE
ENCOUNTERS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE
DAY...COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS POSSIBLE
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF THE COAST.

A MODERATE ONSHORE WIND WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
MARINE CRAFT TODAY...AS WELL AS BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT. THE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW BUT STILL CAN OCCUR...ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.