River Flood Warning 38, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS84 KMOB 011435
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
935 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...
 
  FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL AFFECTING BALDWIN COUNTY.


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

ALC003-011505-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-090402T0400Z/
/FSHA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
935 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL
* AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET BUT IS
RISING.
*FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...SOME AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE  FLOODING NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING
AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOODWATERS ON SEVERAL RIVERS
CONTINUE HIGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN RECESSION. MODERATE TO
MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON SEVERAL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MORE RAIN EXPECTED BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...REFER TO THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) WEB SITE:

              AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MOB

OTHERWISE...IN THE SHORT TERM A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AS A WAVE FORMS ALONG IT. IT IS NOW LOCATED IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND BOOKING A PATH OF THIS WAVE APPEARS TO TAKE A
TRACK THAT IS EVEN CLOSER TO THE BEACH THAN THE NUMBERS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD US...A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NEAR SABINE PASS PAST LAKE CHARLES AND ALONG THE COAST
AS IT PASSES OVER US WITH A COLD FRONT. AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WHAT WE SEE IN SOUNDINGS...DEEP LAYERS OF HIGH HUMIDITY AIR
INTERSPERSED WITH DRY SLOTS MIDLEVELS OR LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE DRY
LAYERS WILL EFFECT FORMATION OF DOWNDRAFTS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT BRINGING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM
DOWNBURSTS.

WE ARE CONTINUING WITH THE HPC FORECAST. HPC HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW CYCLES. TO OUR WEST WE ARE LOOKING AT 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES OVER APPROXIMATELY 24
HOURS. FURTHER EAST...ADD AN INCH TO THOSE FIGURES. RAINMAKING IS
INHERENT IN WHAT WE SEE IN SOUNDINGS...DEEP LAYERS OF HIGH HUMIDITY
AIR INTERSPERSED WITH DRY SLOTS MIDLEVELS OR LOW TO MID LEVELS.
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL FIRE THINGS UP ON THE STORM
SCALE. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE...THE
FLOOD SITUATION IS MUCH MORE DELICATE. SATURATED SOIL FROM ALL THE
RAIN RECEIVED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL MINIMIZE
PERCOLATION OF WATER INTO THE WEATHERING ZONE OF THE EARTH.
THEREFORE WE HAVE A RISK OF INCREASED RUNOFF AS A POSSIBILITY WITH
REPEATED RISK OF FLOODING. THE GFS WAS BRINGING THE RAINFALL
BULLSEYE PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE PHYSICAL
MODEL IS FORECASTING 3 TO 5 INCHES PER 6 HOURS.

FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THE RAIN TOTALS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS WITH EVENT AVERAGES OF LESS
THAN AN INCH AND LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...STAYED WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT
OUTPUT ON EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

IT IS INDEED A PLEASURE TO THANK WFO TAE...LIX...JAN AND BMX FOR
COORDINATION WITH US ON OUR BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM CONTINUES UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING.
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND
BUILDING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. /32

&&

/77

.FIRE WEATHER...WET. WILDFIRE RISK MINIMAL.

/77

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALABAMA DRAINAGE BASINS...

ALABAMA RIVER AT CLAIBORNE LOCK NEAR PEAK...TO REMAIN SO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FALLING TREND DOWNSTREAM AT MILLERS FERRY.

CONECUH RIVER BREWTON CONTINUES TO RISE VERY SLOWLY WITH INCREASED
RISE EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY.

FLORIDA DRAINAGE BASINS...

ESCAMBIA RIVER AT CENTURY HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY TO REMAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SHOAL RIVER...CRESTVIEW IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BUT WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD WITH THIS NEXT RAIN EVENT.

BLACKWATER RIVER...BAKER TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD WITH THIS NEXT
RAIN EVENT. MINOR FLOODING.

BIG COLDWATER RIVER...MILTON RISING TO NEAR FLOOD WITH THIS NEXT
RAIN.

PERDIDO RIVER...BARRINEAU PARK TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD WITH NEXT RAIN
EVENT. MINOR FLOODING.

STYX RIVER ELSANOR TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD WITH NEXT RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  69  57  77 /  70  40  20  40
PENSACOLA   59  69  61  79 /  90  60  40  40
DESTIN      63  68  64  73 /  90  70  50  40
EVERGREEN   54  70  54  79 /  80  40  30  50
WAYNESBORO  49  71  51  77 /  60  20  05  50
CAMDEN      51  69  53  78 /  80  30  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...AND STONE.

GM...GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
730 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-020100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
730 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MANY AREA RIVERS GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.  GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BECOME A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID DAY
WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
SUNDAY AND BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.  THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALSO ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HWO/INDEX.PHP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MUNSON                  30.86N 86.87W
03/31/2009                   SANTA ROSA         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO BUILDINGS RECEIVED DAMAGE IN MUNSON

&&

CULLEN