Freeze Watch 3, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
513 AM CDT MON APR 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED
TO NOT UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO A WARNING AS GUIDANCE
HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT AND DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL STILL BE UP.
WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT SOME LOW TO MID 30S OVER INTERIOR ZONES
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPS HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT.
DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE LATER DATA AND DECIDE IF A WARNING IS
JUSTIFIED. MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS STRONG 20 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TODAY
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOW/MID 30S
OVER INTERIOR ZONES (ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES) AND UPPER 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST (EVEN SOME LOW 40S ALONG THE BEACHES). 12/DS

(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH 20S.
CHANCE OF FROST HIGH WITH INCREASE OF HUMIDITY AND CALM WIND. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED BY LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM FROM YESTERDAY NOTING THAT...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY IS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO CIGS/VSBY
NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY EXPECTED TODAY. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH
A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH SEAS.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...BUT AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING
SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BRING DISPERSION 80 TO
NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE NEAR 35
PERCENT FOR TODAY BUT WITH 20 FOOT WIND ABOVE 15 MPH...ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR FLORIDA PER GUIDELINES. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT
TUESDAY DUE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR LOW HUMIDITY...WIND WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED BY THEN. WEDNESDAY MAY GET A WATCH LATER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THAT HIGH. WIND MAY BE LITTLE GUSTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO FORMATION OF A GRAVITY CURRENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  36  61  38 /  05  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   65  36  60  37 /  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  41  61  43 /  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   58  31  55  26 /  05  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  57  30  56  28 /  05  00  05  00
CAMDEN      58  33  53  29 /  05  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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