Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1121 AM CST MON JAN 12 2009

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAF SITES. /29

** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE (AND STILL DEVELOPING) UPPER TROUGH
THAT  EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO EAST
TEXAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE COOL DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(MID/UPPER 50S) AND FAIRLY UNIFORM IN COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
INLAND...AND THE 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM...FOR TUE THE FIRST OF TWO CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASSES
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVING WAY TO A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF DURING
THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WED THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED MORNING. THIS SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF REGION THROUGH 06Z THU
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY THU MORNING AS NEXT
SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS 1040 HIGH
SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THU THROUGH FRI EVENING RESULTING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPS FOR THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. 00Z MEX GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS
LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA WILL FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS
FRI MORNING...POSSIBLY FALLING TO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN THE CEW AREA.
BY MID WEEK...WED AFT...IF THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE BELIEVE A HARD
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. AS FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE A SEE IF WE CAN
PINPOINT BETTER WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE FRI MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIP NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVER THE CWFA LOOKS TO BE SUN
INTO MON OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING INLAND WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
/32

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /22

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE REINFORCEMENT OF A STRONG HIGH BEHIND IT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH BUILDING SEAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WIND AND SEAS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER HIGH WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH WIND AND HIGH SEAS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. DUE TO MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LATE WED MORNING AND WED AFT. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  34  53  27 /  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   57  36  56  30 /  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      57  41  58  35 /  00  00  05  05
EVERGREEN   57  27  53  25 /  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  57  28  51  24 /  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      56  27  51  25 /  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
538 AM CST MON JAN 12 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-131145-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
538 AM CST MON JAN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BRINGING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE...LEAF
AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS.

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND CREATE AN INCREASED RISK
OF WILD FIRES.

WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH THE MID/UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS NEXT WEEK...WITH MIDDLE
20S FORECAST OVER OUR INLAND AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE WARNINGS IN THE MID
TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.