Fire Weather Watch 13, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)EFFECTS OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BEEN MORE OVER THE
GULF...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST
SO FAR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS INITIAL ENERGY
MOVING EAST OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS A FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FA
MOVES ACROSS THE FA TODAY. GFS EXITS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FA A
COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT THIS IS GENERALLY
INSIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL RAIN WITH THE FRONT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS. NAM A BIT QUICKER IN MOVING IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE WENT WITH BLENDED APPROACH FOR TONIGHTS LOW AS A
RESULT. /16

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BY THE BREAK OF DAWN
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLDER
AND DRIER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA ON BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. A LITTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
SETTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SHOULD SEND SOME CLOUDS DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...POSSIBLY JUST SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGES
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
TUESDAY. LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CLOUDS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ENSURE A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A FEW DAYS AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL WAY TO THE
COAST...ONLY THE BARRIER ISLANDS ESCAPING A FREEZE. JUST ENOUGH WIND
FOR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES.  MOSTLY LOW 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
HIGHS. /11

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)THURSDAY MORNING STARTS OUT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 OVER MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10 WITH ANOTHER FREEZE SOUTH TO THE ISLANDS. MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERSTATE
TRIANGLE...NORTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF I-65. SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL
BE POKING BACK TO THE EAST OVER THAT AREA BUT FARTHER TO THE WEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ALABAMA BORDER...SURFACE WINDS
WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THAT REGION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAYS
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. ENOUGH MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS BY THE WEEKEND THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE TRAVELED
EAST BY THE WEEKEND AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...RESULT BEING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR SUNDAY. /11

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE) CURRENT WEATHER EVENT HAS PROVED TO BE
LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC IN MOVING IN IFR VIZ/CIGS...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO THE COMING FRONT (I.E. THIS AFTERNOON). EVEN
THE NAM IS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING. BOTH AGREE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. /16

&&

.MARINE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE FA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SCY CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO GUSTS) ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS LOWS PASSAGE. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...SOME SETTLING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. ITS
EFFECTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RE-ENFORCING FRONT CROSSES THE
AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING..LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
SETTLING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...FLOW HAS
SWITCHED BACK TO ONSHORE...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING SUNDAY AS A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITSELF
FELT BY TUESDAY WITH A RED FLAG POSTED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSIONS GOOD TO VERY GOOD ON TUESDAY WILL JUST BE FAIR TO
AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
ALABAMA ZONES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      59  33  57  30 /  70  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   61  36  60  30 /  80  05  05  05
DESTIN      60  38  58  33 /  80  10  05  05
EVERGREEN   55  32  56  26 /  80  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  56  30  55  24 /  70  00  10  00
CAMDEN      53  31  54  27 /  80  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-031200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS A SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONT  MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE
MORNING INTO TONIGHT...STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE SEAS...CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BEHIND A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...CREATING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
WILDFIRES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN LATE
THURSDAY...INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS AND DECREASING THE
WILDFIRE RISK.

ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME SETTLING OVER ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY...BUT A SECOND...RE-ENFORCING FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN WITH DECREASING
OFFSHORE WINDS...SO WILL THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.