Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
431 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE...UPDATED FOR TEMPO GROUPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE AFFECTING
ALL TERMINALS AND GENERALLY THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF THE SHORELINE
AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY. ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR
FOG ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY.

******PREVIOUS*****

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...CLAUDETTE MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN
FT. WALTON BEACH AND DESTIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE
STRUCTURE OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE FL BIG BEND...BECOMING DETACHED WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NOW MOVING UP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AL
ZONES. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS WITH
ALL WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN DETACHED RAINBANDS. FORECASTERS FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
IS GREATEST EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TODAY...EAST OF A LINE FROM
PENSACOLA FL TO EVERGREEN TO GREENVILLE AL...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH (FFA) REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 18/00Z...7PM LOCAL TIME MON. STORM
TOTAL RAINS IN THE FFA AREA COULD AMOUNT TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...WITH THE
EXPECTED NW PROGRESS OF THE REMNANT LOW OF CLAUDETTE...WE CARRY A
LIKELY POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CAMDEN TO CHATOM AL...ELSEWHERE WE HAVE A CHANCE IN. DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...ALTHOUGH CLAUDETTE WILL BE OUT
OF THE PICTURE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE ON THE HIGH SIDE. WE LOOK TO BE UNDER A MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WITH HIGHER CHANCES OCCURRING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST AND LOWER
CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SINK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE GULF
COAST. CONSIDERING THIS...POP OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TREND WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE THOUGH...DOES NOT
SUGGEST MUCH OF A COOL DOWN...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. /10

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...WITH TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND ANTICIPATED CONTINUED WEAKENING...WILL START WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF SITES WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHRA THROUGH 16Z. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS FORM BY 16Z AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE
PREVAILING LIGHT TSRA THROUGH 01Z FOR ANTICIPATED PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTION AFTER 01Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. /29

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
CLAUDETTE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF CLAUDETTE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS
AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER TODAY.  INITIALLY...WILL HAVE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AS CLAUDETTE
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE FRONT
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH.
COVERAGES OF SHWRS/TSTMS REMAIN HIGH TODAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF
CLAUDETTE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST AL. A
MODERATE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  74  90  74 /  70  50  60  20
PENSACOLA   85  74  89  75 /  80  40  40  20
DESTIN      83  76  89  76 /  90  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   83  69  89  70 /  90  50  50  20
WAYNESBORO  86  71  90  72 /  70  60  70  20
CAMDEN      84  70  88  71 /  80  60  60  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...AND ESCAMBIA.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR CLAUDETTE DOWNGRADE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-181200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
642 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THEN SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.  WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS SUBSIDE FURTHER.  THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.