Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
926 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS/QPF AND
CLOUD COVER FOR THE NERN CWA AS DAB HAS ALREADY RECEIVED AN
ADDITIONAL TWO INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 7 AM...AND ADDITIONAL TRAINING
OF CELLS INTO THAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE INCHES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTRW...HIGH MEAN LYR PWAT COUPLED WITH A GNRLY CONVGT LOW LVL
PTTRN AND FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT WILL LEAD TO WDSPRD COVRG OF
DIURNAL SHRA/TS ACROSS ECFL...WITH LCLLY HEAVY RAINFALL PSBL.
WHILE UPR LVL TEMPS HAVE WARMED SOME...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TS
REMAINS...AND SHEAR PROFILE IS NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR SOME CELLS TO
ROTATE...THOUGH UPSTREAM ROTATION OF ATLC ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY
WEAK/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...DAB WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FQT IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS
+SHRA/TS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THAT AREA. COVRG OF DIURNAL TS
EXPECTED OVER MLB/VRB THROUGH 16Z-18Z...THEN SHIFT INLAND TO
INLAND AERODROMES DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS TO CURRENT SUITE OF ADVISORIES. BUOY AND C-MAN
OBSERVATIONS (10-11FT) CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY HAZARDOUS WIND/SEA/
SURF CONDS OVER THE ATLC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY/RAINFALL... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) PERSISTENT SHOWER
BANDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY COASTS
THIS MORNING...POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE AREAS IN NE VOLUSIA CO WHERE
TORRENTIAL FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCCURRED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDTIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS. FLW CONTINUES TODAY FOR VOLUSIA CO AND
FFW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR NE VOLUSIA COUNTY.

ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS CURRENTLY AT FLOOD STAGE (2.8 FT).
FCST BRINGS DELAND WITHIN .5 FT OF ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  72  82  72 / 100  50  60  30
MCO  83  70  86  71 /  70  50  60  30
MLB  81  74  84  73 /  70  50  60  30
VRB  81  74  84  72 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-222245-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1025 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF TORNADOES
TODAY. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION
...AND PRODUCE ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
ONGOING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY PARTS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY
THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH FOR INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY AS WELL. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH 6:15 PM TONIGHT...AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8:00 PM.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TRAIN OVER FLOODED AREAS
...AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING SITUATION.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8:00 PM FOR RESIDENTS
ALONG THE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. BRISK ONSHORE WINDS AND
MODERATE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE COAST OF VOLUSIA COUNTY TODAY. THE
SWELLS WILL PREVENT AN EFFICIENT DISCHARGE FROM THE PONCE INLET INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE DAYTONA BEACH AIRPORT HAS RECORDED MORE THAN
18 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5 DAYS. RUNOFF FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN INTO THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY TODAY COUPLED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INLET. THIS
MAY IMPACT LOW LYING AREAS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BRISK ONSHORE WINDS WILL DRIVE A MODERATE SWELL TOWARD THE COAST
WITH ROUGH...POUNDING SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THESE FACTORS WILL
ELEVATE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST
THROUGH 1:00 PM DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.  BEACHGOERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER TODAY.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREAS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
MARINE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE...AND 9-11 FEET OFFSHORE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN THIS
PAST WEEK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED RIVER STAGES AT LAKE HARNEY...
SANFORD...AND DELAND ARE NOT YET A CONCERN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN IN VICINITY OF ASTOR AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND SWELLS
INHIBITING THE DISCHARGE...THE RIVER NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE TODAY AND MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AT ASTOR FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO
A MORE TRADITIONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW/CRISTALDI