Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 172228
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
628 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FLC061-172238-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-090717T2245Z/
INDIAN RIVER-
628 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE STORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 2759 8035 2761 8036 2759 8036 2756 8049
      2770 8057 2777 8044 2771 8040 2775 8040
      2777 8042 2779 8040 2768 8035 2769 8035
      2763 8035 2759 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 246DEG 16KT 2770 8033

$$
RL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVING ENE THROUGH EC FL AT MID
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO SCATTERED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS APPROACH THE COAST...WITH EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT REMAINING ALONG OR VERY
NEAR THE COAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OR PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY SUNSET.

SATURDAY...UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL BAND PUSHING
THROUGH GA. GFS HAS THE RIGHT TREND WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH VERSUS
SOUTH BUT OVERALL VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH AND HAVE TRIMMED DOWN...
WITH 50-60 FAR NORTH TO 30-35 PERCENT FAR SOUTH. SOUTHWARD TREK OF
RIDGE AXIS WILL FURTHER HAMPER SEA BREEZE FORMATION...AND LIKELY
LIMIT IT TO REMAINING NEAR THE COAST TREASURE COAST AREA ONLY.

SUN...GFS DIGS HIGHER MOISTURE BAND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM SUN
PUTTING GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND MATCHES WILL
WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE
FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD AROUND 50% WITH 40% FARTHER SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THIS
AREA. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER A SLIGHTLY WEAKER W/SW STEERING FLOW.
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON-THU...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A VERY DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH PINCHING OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RETROGRADING WESTWARD AS THE STRONG
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SW ACROSS FL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AND EXPOSES US TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W/NW AROUND
PERIPHERY OF ATLC SFC HIGH. GFS SHOWS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUE-THU WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES. BUT THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPECT SINCE A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS...WHICH
FEATURES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SE U.S. HARD TO SEE A 594 DM
UPPER HIGH SETTING UP OVER FL.

MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AT LEAST WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE SE U.S. AND HOLDS OFF THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH. SO DEEP
EASTERLIES DO NOT MATERIALIZE. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE SW ATLC PULLS THE TROPICAL WAVE NORTHWARD EAST OF FL KEEPING
THE HEAVIEST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
EXTENDED FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TH

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD REDUCTIONS FROM TSRA OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR.
CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTN WITH COVERAGE
BECOMING SCT E COAST COUNTIES. DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...BCMG VFR ALL SITES BY AROUND 18/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...DLM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR SRN PENINSULA WILL GENERATE
A LIGHT TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE ACROSS THE LCL ATLC THRU TONIGHT.
SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS MAY SHIFT TO THE S FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN
ALONG THE COAST S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...BUT NO TRUE SEA BREEZE
XPCTD. FETCH PROTECTED SEAS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW...1-2FT
NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

GFS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS LIFTING NORTH OF THE WATERS MON AND TUE WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND...3 FT OFFSHORE BUT MAY BUILD 4-5 FT
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  74  89 /  20  60  30  50
MCO  76  90  75  90 /  10  50  30  50
MLB  75  90  73  89 /  10  40  20  40
VRB  75  92  73  90 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
610 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-172215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
610 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH AS WELL. SEEK STURDY SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THREATENING WEATHER. DEADLY LIGHTNING OFTEN STRIKES WELL OUTSIDE
THE RAIN SHAFT OF A THUNDERSTORM.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM FORMATION ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
553 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW MERRITT ISLAND WI 28.62N 80.72W
07/17/2009  M43 MPH          BREVARD            FL   ASOS

            SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY MEASURED WIND GUST TO 37 KNOTS /
            43 MPH FROM 310 DEGREES.

&&

JRC