Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 102037
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
437 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

FLC009-102100-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-090710T2100Z/
BREVARD-
437 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED OVER THE INTRACOASTAL BETWEEN MERRITT ISLAND AND COCOA 
BEACH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LOCATED OVER INTERSTATE 95 NEAR 
VIERA...BOTH MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
VIERA...PATRICK AIRFORCE BASE...SATELLITE BEACH...PALM SHORES...PALM 
BAY...MELBOURNE BEACH...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIAN HARBOUR 
BEACH...INDIALANTIC..CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP AND BAREFOOT BAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 8044 2794 8052 2784 8050 2782 8061
      2782 8086 2833 8087 2844 8089 2848 8077
      2834 8072 2848 8074 2852 8062 2843 8066
      2823 8064 2842 8063 2853 8056 2845 8052
      2840 8059 2820 8059 2806 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 343DEG 11KT 2841 8048 2829 8066
          2830 8085

$$


MOSES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER WEEKEND..

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON STORMS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
SUNSET THEN DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING INFLUENCE IS LOST. FRONTAL
TROUGHING/BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THEN OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ALREADY SHOWING DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERLAND WILL WIND DOWN DURING
THE EVENING.

SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING FORECAST TO LIE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH TO THE EAST AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. LIKELY POP/60 FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
AND SOUTH BREVARD/OSCEOLA SOUTH AS STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS BACK TO THE COAST. STORMS COULD BECOME GOOD
LIGHTNING/GUSTY WIND PRODUCERS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AS THEY BUMP
AGAINST THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
.SUN-MON...
CTRL CONUS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EWD AND LINK UP WITH THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE...BUT AS WEVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS SUMMER
THUS FAR...IT NEVER REALLY COMPLETES THE JOB. INSTEAD...ECFL
REMAINS UNDER A SORT OF WEAKNESS AT H50 (591-592DM) BETWEEN THE
RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN IN PLACE. AS MOISTURE
ASCD WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH DIMINISHES...POPS WILL RETURN TO
NR CLIMO (30-40). BY LATE MON/MON NGT...THE GFS SHOWS SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO DRIVE A FRONTAL TROUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH
FL...BUT WOULD PREFER TO WAIT BEFORE NUDGING UP POPS ANY.

.TUE-THU...
PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN THE SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN
THE H50 HGT FIELDS OVER FL. GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOWLY INCREASING
MOISTURE IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SRLY FLOW PATTERN WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WILL SLOWLY TREND POPS UP FROM 30 TO 40 FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALL IN ALL...COVERAGE AND STORM STRENGTH DURG DAYS 2-7
LOOK LIKE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR/IFR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 45KT
AS DAYTIME HEATING AND PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES STORMS
AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. STORMS/SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN MID EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
THROUGH 11/06Z. VFR THROUGH 16Z THEN MVFR AS DAYTIME HEATING STARTS
HELPING TO FORM CU.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT...GREATEST CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
STORMS AFFECTING THE COAST. MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN G35KT...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN STORMS OVER THE ICW AND
NEARSHORE WATERS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

SAT-WED...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS 5-10 KT/2-3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY REACH TO AROUND 15
KNOTS IN THE NORTH.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH TO THE WESTERN SKIES VERO BEACH
SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STEERING FLOW WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS
EASTWARD. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP SEBASTIAN INLET
NORTH STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLAND...THE ICW AND THE MAINLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING STEERING WINDS WILL LEAD TO
LESS CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  71  89 /  40  50  20  20
MCO  71  90  72  92 /  30  50  20  20
MLB  71  87  71  88 /  40  60  20  30
VRB  70  89  71  89 /  40  60  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
617 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-102230-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
617 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE
MORNING...AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE INTERIOR PENINSULA. STORM COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS EASTWARD MOVING STORMS INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. MANY OF THE STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. A FEW
STORMS MAY INCREASE TO SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF
AROUND 60 MPH AND PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIGHTNING USUALLY POSES THE GREATEST
WEATHER THREAT TO YOUR SAFETY. THE EARLY AND LATE STAGES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN ARE THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME TO BE
OUTDOORS...AS MANY PEOPLE ARE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE FIRST OR
FINAL STRIKES TO THE GROUND. MOVE INDOORS WELL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
STORMS AND REMAIN INSIDE UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST THUNDER IS
HEARD.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
RAINFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH MANY OF
THE STORMS. TEMPORARY LOCAL FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES AGAIN
TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD AND DO NOT SWIM
ALONE.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STORMS
WILL ALSO IMPACT THE INLAND LAKES. THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION NEAR
THE EAST COAST WILL HELP STRENGTHEN STORMS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS...CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY WILL MANY OF THE STORMS TODAY. WATCH FOR DARKENING SKIES AND
LIGHTNING TO THE WEST AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL BEFORE STORMS
APPROACH THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND...SIGNALING A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
GENERATED LIGHTNING STORMS EACH AFTERNOON RATHER THAN THE MORE
EXTENSIVE STORMS OF THE PAST WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

SPRATT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

FLZ045-101930-
ORANGE-
246 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AFFECTING CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM PRODUCING A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BITHLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT STATE ROADS 528...520...AND 50 NEAR
CHRISTMAS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

MOSES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

FLZ045-046-102015-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
323 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...SEMINOLE
COUNTY...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE MERGING OVER SOUTH SEMINOLE
COUNTY NEAR OVIEDO AND LAKE JESSUP.  THESE MERGER WILL CONTINUE TO
FROM EAST TO WEST TOWARD LAKE MARY AND LONGWOOD THROUGH 415 PM.

STRONG THUNDERSTROMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SEMINOLE AND
NORTH ORANGE COUNTY AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP
TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

FLZ045-102015-
ORANGE-
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORMS OVER WALT DISNEY WORLD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE BAY HILL...DOCTOR
PHILLIPS...UNIVERSAL STUDIOS AND SEAWORLD.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING OR HARD
TOPPED AUTOMOBILE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF
COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING.

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW BITHLO             28.52N 81.18W
07/10/2009  M53 MPH          ORANGE             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LACROSSE WEATHER EQUIPMENT

&&

MRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

FLZ047-053-147-102100-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OF STORMS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY
PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

MOSES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
414 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE PLAYALINDA BEACH  28.56N 80.57W
07/10/2009  M47 MPH          BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            41 KNOTS AT USAF 54 FOOT WIND TOWER

&&

MRT