Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 232111
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
511 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FLC069-232120-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-090523T2145Z/
LAKE-
511 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE STORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND 
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN 
LAKE COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM.

LAT...LON 2850 8196 2850 8195 2849 8182 2835 8185
      2834 8186 2834 8195 2834 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 181DEG 7KT 2836 8191

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LA/MS/AL REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWEST INLAND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MOIST
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAIN
THREATS CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL - FLOODING THREAT /
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING / POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE ROTATION FROM A FEW STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUN...WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND A CONTINUED MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

MON-SAT...IN SHORT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD (THOUGH NOT AS
WET AS THE ONE WE HAVE BEEN ENDURING THIS WEEK). THE MODELS SHOW
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GULF/FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUING. THE PATTERN OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO
DIURNAL IN NATURE...FAVORING AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ARKANSAS ON MON WITH A DEEP LAYER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE NAM
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THEREFORE
DO NOT FAVOR THAT SOLUTION NOR ITS 40-50 PERCENT POPS. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD
REMEMBER LIGHTNING SAFETY RULES.

THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON TUE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND DESTABILIZATION
DUE TO TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/SCT TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR WITH MOST SITES EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE OCNL IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...TIL 20Z ALONG THE COAST...AND BTWN 23/18Z AND 23/22Z
OVER THE INTERIOR. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFT 23/22Z...BCMG
SCT BY 24/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-SUN...SE FLOW TO CONTINUE AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH SEAS 6-8 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE
SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT ECFL WATERS WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND
INTO SUN. WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVIER CELLS COULD EXCEED 35 KTS WITH
SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION. WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS
OFFSHORE UNTIL 08Z (4AM) SUN WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN PLACE
NEAR SHORE.

MON...WITH RESPECT TO WINDS/SEAS...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT. I WOULD BE TEMPTED TO SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT BE THE
ONE DECENT DAY THAT BOATERS COULD SALVAGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY HELP TO SPARK CONSIDERABLE
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
AFTERNOON STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND MAY EVEN PUSH BACK TO THE
COAST.

TUE-THU...NO WIND/SEA PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SHOULD TURN TO OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DEEP S/SERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS FL. BASIN AVG QPF VALUES THRU 24HRS WILL BE BLO 1.0...BUT
LCL RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 3 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TRAINING RAIN
BANDS. WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE GOMEX DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE STATE...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSRAS DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND TRACK UP THE E FL
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  83  70  84 /  30  60  30  60
MCO  69  86  70  86 /  30  60  30  60
MLB  72  85  71  84 /  40  60  30  60
VRB  72  85  70  85 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-232200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
930 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH A FEW
BECOMING STRONG DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MAY
ACQUIRE ROTATION AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST AND COULD PRODUCE A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY PARTS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN OVER FLOODED AREAS. THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH FOR VOLUSIA
AND NORTH LAKE COUNTY. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR
VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH 10:00 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A MODERATE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY...ELEVATING THE RIP CURRENT RISK. THE THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST THROUGH 1:30 PM DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. BEACHGOERS ARE
URGED CHECK WITH BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS AND TO SWIM
ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREAS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
MARINE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE...AND 7-10 FEET
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN THIS
PAST WEEK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED RIVER STAGES AT LAKE HARNEY...
SANFORD...AND DELAND ARE NOT YET A CONCERN. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND SWELLS INHIBITING RIVER
DISCHARGE...THE STAGE NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND
MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AT ASTOR FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A
MORE TRADITIONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW/SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FLZ144-231815-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER GROVELAND...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

THIS STORM HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME WEAK ROTATION AND A FUNNEL CLOUD
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FLZ144-232115-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

KELLY