Red Flag Warning 48, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
902 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURRED
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA WITH LITTLE FANFARE.
HOWEVER DURING AFTERNOON HEATING THERE WERE ACTUALLY A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT PRODUCED A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY.  A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS OCCURRED
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

NOTICED MORE FIRES ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME AREAS WILL HAVE
THE SMELL OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT.  THERE COULD BE LOCAL VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WHERE SMOKE COMBINES WITH FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR SOUTH
VOLUSIA COUNTY/NORTH BREVARD COUNTY.

MON...THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP CONSIDERABLY MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THAN TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA.  AT FIRST GLANCE
THIS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE...HOWEVER A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ALL THE
MODELS SHOW COOLING OF THE 700-300 MB LAYER...SO THERE WILL BE MORE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH MID AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S HIGH
TEMPS.  OF COURSE MOISTURE IS THE MAIN NECESSARY INGREDIENT TO GET
MEANINGFUL COVERAGE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY PROGGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY.  THEREFORE...THINK THAT THE SCATTERED
MOS POPS ARE TOO HIGH LATE MON...BUT THERE MAY BE POPS OF 15-20
PERCENT FOR A PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AND THE MID SHIFT MIGHT NEED
TO ADD A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE RATHER BENIGN WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH MON.  SHORT
DURATION/FETCH INCREASES TO 10-15 KNOTS...OFFSHORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN 2 FOOT WIND CHOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THIS AFTERNOON-MON...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DURATION LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME WITH 2 TO 3 HOURS BELOW 35
PERCENT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
A BIT MORE MOISTURE SLOWLY FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION.

TUES-SAT...INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING ALONG THE SEABREEZES. AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
RE-ESTABLISHED BY LATE WEEK...INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 35 PERCENT BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MCO TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY.  DAB MISSED
BY ONE DEGREE.  MLB/VRB MISSED BY 5 DEGREES.

       RECORD HIGHS 5/10
DAB       94 (2008)
MCO       97 (1962)
MLB       95 (1978)
VRB 	  95 (1976)

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1008 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-111000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1008 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
WILDFIRES THAT BROKE OUT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY DENSE
SMOKE. THE MAIN AREA THAT STILL HAD ACTIVE FIRES SUNDAY EVENING
WAS IN SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...JUST EAST OF LAKE HARNEY. THIS
SMOKE MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. ANOTHER
WILDFIRE OCCURRED BETWEEN CASSIA AND MOUNT PLYMOUTH. STILL ANOTHER
WILDFIRE THAT WAS SPARKED BY LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING OVER MARTIN
COUNTY NEAR INDIANTOWN.

IF TRAVELING ON HIGHWAYS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BE
ALERT FOR SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THESE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
KEEP AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
MONDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR FROM TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

LASCODY