Red Flag Warning 47, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA TODAY. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
ALONG THE COAST WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BEFORE THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN AND COOLS OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO AROUND THE UPPER 80S
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND COLLIDES WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

MON-TUE...WITH CROSSED FINGERS THE GFS SHOWS CURRENT/STUBBORN
SFC RIDGE TO DEVELOP A WEAKNESS BEGINNING MON...ERODING FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...TIMING WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...BUT
FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO ENDURE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUE...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER GEORGIA WILL SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALMOST BACKDOORING IN. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN CONCENTRATED DEEP LAYER MOSITURE. THIS SHOULD BRING A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS (AND DECREASE IN SUN) ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL
NOT BE QUITE SO STARVED. COMBINED EFFECTS SHOULD ALSO KNOCK MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

WED-SAT...UNFORTUNATELY THE BOUNDARY BECOMES EVER MORE DIFUSE AND
BUMPED BACK TOWARD NORTH PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE DOES
LINGER AND DRIFT...AND REPRESENTS POCKET AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE
EXPLOITATION. HOWEVER...CAN NOT PLACE GREAT CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
MEAGER DISTRIBUTION. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS...BUT NO DROUGHT BUSTERS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD KEEP WITHIN THE STANDARD DEVIATION. SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE RIDGE PATTERN RE-ESTABLISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS BECOMING SE AROUND 10-15 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 1-2 FT NEARHSHORE TO 2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOISTED ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE CHANGING AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE 4-5 HOURS OF RH BELOW 35
PERCENT OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES BEFORE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PUSH
INLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK RECORDS TODAY BUT SHOULD COME
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES.

       RECORD HIGH 5/10
DAB       94 (2008)
MCO       97 (1962)
MLB       95 (1978)
VRB       95 (1976)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  94  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  93  73  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  91  73  89  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...DW
LONG-TERM...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
516 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-092200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
516 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL EAST SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE SURF ZONE WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A MODERATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN
AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY ONWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY