Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/OVERNIGHT...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH ASSOCIATED MESO HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA HAS CREATED AN INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WITH LEADING EDGE OF COOLER & DRIER AIR
STILL LIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS LAKE & COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTHWARD TO OVER ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

HAVE MADE ONE ZONE UPDATE A LITTLE EARLIER TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD
WORDING AND ALLOW FOR EXPIRATION OF THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVISORY. MAY
MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END & WINDS
(HOPEFULLY) DECREASE SOUTHWARD.

WED-WED NIGHT...(PREVIOUS)...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY WED. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
MARTIN COUNTY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH UPPER 70S OVER THE
NORTH TO LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH.

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL CREATE
PLEASANT OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND NO CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ATMOS PROFILES SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEFT AROUND MOST PLACES. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN TO SEE
THINNING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONG & GUSTY WINDS FROM KVRB-KFPR-KSUA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OFF OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...WILL AXE TWO NORTHERN NEAR SHORE LEGS WITH
NEXT CWF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN LEG RUNNING FOR ONE
MORE ISSUANCE DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT PRESSING SOUTHWARD. WILL
KEEP SCA OFFSHORE ONGOING TO 08Z (4AM). SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND INTENSE WIND FIELD LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WED-THU...(PREVIOUS)...DRIER AIR MASS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RH VALUES SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM BREVARD SWD WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE RH DROP. MAY HAVE LOW RH CONCERNS
NORTHERN INTERIOR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN
     LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SEDLOCK/LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1224 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-142100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1224 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SQUALL LINE PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH AREAS FROM NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...POINTS SOUTHWARD INCLUDING SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...SOUTHERN
BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...OKEECHOBEE...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...COIN SIZE HAIL AND ROTATION THAT COULD PRODUCE
A TORNADO ON THE GROUND. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER VERY CLOSELY AND TAKE SHELTER
FROM STORMS BEFORE THEY ARRIVE.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN
RIVER...BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FROM AROUND MELBOURNE
BEACH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

GLITTO