Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY...ROUGH SURF THIS WEEKEND...

COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTH FL AT MID MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...NNE-NELY FLOW OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE WITH INVERTED
TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF FL PENINSULA AND A FEW CONVERGENT
BANDS OF SHRA MOVING ONSHORE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING PGRAD AHEAD OF
FRONT. PLAN TO TWEAK POPS UP A LITTLE ALONG TREASURE COAST TO
INDICATE MENTIONABLE VALUES THERE. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TRENDS INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING BR/LOW CIGS DIMINISHING BY 14Z...THEN
PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES WITH OCNL SFC WND GUST ABV 20-25KTS
DEVELOPING AFT 16Z...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBY/CIGS FM ISOLD SHRA SWD FROM
KFPR. AFT 21/00Z...ISOLD MVFR REDUCTIONS IN SHRA NR COAST WITH OCNL
SFC WND +25KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT HEADLINES STILL ON TRACK. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER WORSENING THIS
EVENING WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE WATERS FOLLOWED BY STRONG NELY
FLOW/BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS) E/NE FLOW THRU THE MIXING LYR SHOULD
ADVECT SUFFICIENT OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO KEEP
AFTN RH VALUES ABV CRITICAL LVLS.  NEVERTHELESS...THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES MAY SEE AFTN READINGS DROP BLO 40% FOR A FEW HRS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WILL SEE
SOME WETTING FROM COASTAL SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

GLITTO/WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
613 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
613 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD FIVE TO SEVEN FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP
CURRENT THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR THROUGH 10:00 AM THIS
MORNING AND AFTER 4:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

A RIP CURRENT IS A NARROW CHANNEL OF WATER FLOWING RAPIDLY
OUTWARD FROM THE SURF ZONE WHICH CAN CARRY EVEN THE STRONGEST
SWIMMERS INTO DEEP WATER. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...REMAIN CALM
AND SIGNAL FOR HELP. SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST UNTIL THE PULL OF
THE CURRENT SUBSIDES...THEN RETURN TO SHORE. DO NOT TRY TO SWIM
BACK TO SHORE AGAINST THE CURRENT SINCE THIS IS WHAT CAUSES MOST
RIP CURRENT DROWNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL SAFETY...SWIM ONLY AT
BEACHES WHERE LIFEGUARDS ARE PRESENT AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A FIVE TO SEVEN FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND NEAR
INLETS WHERE THE INCOMING SWELLS CAN MAKE NAVIGATION DIFFICULT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES BEGINNING
AFTER 8:00 PM THIS EVENING.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DESPITE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 10 FEET OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 12 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE
TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

BRAGAW