Lake Wind Advisory 13, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY CONDITIONS...ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...

CURRENT...TIGHT PGRAD CONTINUES BTWN ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC HIGH PRES
RIDGE AND HURCN IDA OVER THE SERN GOMEX. METARS SHOW ABOTU A 3.5MB
GRADIENT BTWN DAB-PBI ATTM. WINDS GNRLY RANGING BTWN 8-10MPH OVER
THE INTR...BUT STILL BLOWING PRETTY HARD...10-20MPH WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 25MPH OVER THE COASTAL COS. THIS IS EXPECIALLY THE CASE ALONG
THE IMMEIDATE COAST AS PATRICK AFB (KCOF) HAS BEEN RUNNING STEADY
AT 20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH FQT GUSTS AROUND 30MPH. OTRW...SHEARED
CI/CS CANOPY TO THE EAST AND NE OF HURCN IDA IS SPREADING FROM SW-NE
ACROSS THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT...SFC AND MID LVL HIGH CTRS WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD AS
IDA MOVES NNW OVER THE ERN GOMEX. PROBABLY WONT SEE TOO MUCH MORE
OF A NOCTURNAL DECREASE IN WINDS SINCE PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT. GIVEN
TEH CURRENT WORDING OF THE ZFP...THINK SOME TWEAKS ARE IN ORDER.
PLAN TO NUDGE INTR WINDS FROM 5-10MPH TO A STRAIGHT NEAR 10 MPH
AND WILL ALSO GO WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES FROM BREVARD
SWD. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AT PAFB...WINDS ARE LKLY THAT MAGNITUDE
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO AT LEAST JUPITER INLET.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY FOR MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO TONIGHT BUT PICK
UP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING TO
17-20 KTS WITH FQT GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. STRONG X-WINDS WILL REMAIN
AN AVIATION HAZARD...ESP TO GA AIRCRAFT...ON N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE ONGOING
FCST. A BIT HIGHER SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...ESPECIALLY SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE AS SEEN IN THE NEAR SHORE SCRIPPS 41114 BUOY (7.2FT). THESE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PGRAD
BTWN IDA AMD THE STRONG WRN ATLC HIGH. EAST WINDS REMAIN 20-25KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
602 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-082200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
602 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR STRONG AND GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON MANY INLAND
LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
...ROUGH SURF AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES...

STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BRING ROUGH
DANGEROUS SURF TO THE BEACHES TODAY. CHILDREN SHOULD NOT WADE INTO
THE SURF DUE TO THE STRONG BREAKING WAVES EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

WIND AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MODERATE THREAT OF
RIP CURRENTS. ONLY ENTER THE SURF NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER
SWIM ALONE IN THE OCEAN.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE VERY CHOPPY SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FEET TONIGHT OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE REMAINS OF IDA ARE FORECAST TO RACE NORTHEAST AND EVOLVE INTO
A NON TROPICAL LOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ROUGH SURF AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY