Lake Wind Advisory 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8-1.9 ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND 1.4
ACROSS FAR SRN AREAS. MID LAYER LOW OVER S FL ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR IN THE MID-UPR LVLS TO WORK NWD ACROSS THE SRN CWA BUT PLENTIFUL
LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...A CONVERGENT
BAND WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. AREAL FLOOD WARNING RE-ISSUED FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND DEVELOPING WITH STORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
LATER THIS AFTN. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN CWA WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPS. HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
SO WILL HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR ROTATION WITH STORMS MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE ATLC. SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO TEMPS AND
CONVERTING WIND ADV TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND EXPANDING TO
ORANGE/SEMINOLE AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...KDAB EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE +RA/CHC TSRA INTO THE
AFTN WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS. OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE INCREASING CHCS
FOR +RA/TSRA INTO THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS
7-8 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND UP TO 14-16 FT OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING
EXPIRED AT 10 AM. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MORNING CALL WITH SE RFC INDICATES RIVER FORECASTS WILL
BE INITIATED FOR ASTOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH RIVER LVL CONTINUING
TO RISE (1.9 THIS MORNING - 2.5 ACTION STAGE). HEAVY RAINS IN THE
BASIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY SHOULD
CONTINUE RISES INTO LATE WEEK. AREAL FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR VOLUSIA
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD RAINFALL RECORDED AT DAYTONA BEACH/ORLANDO/
MELBOURNE/VERO BEACH YESTERDAY (SEE RECORD EVENT REPORTS).
SUPPLEMENTAL RAINFALL REPORTS FROM COCORAHS INDICATE 14.90 INCH
RAINFALL TOTAL 3.5 SE OF ORMOND BEACH OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS.
WILL BE ISSUING EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL SUMMARY LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  71  79  72 /  80  70  80  40
MCO  81  68  84  70 /  80  50  70  40
MLB  80  73  82  72 /  70  70  80  40
VRB  80  73  83  73 /  70  70  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>