Freeze Watch 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK...

...NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTH AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS...

...HEIGHTENED FIRE SENSITIVITY BEGINNING TODAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...

CURRENT...PREVIOUS DAY'S COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD AWAY
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING OUT CURRENT HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS DOWN THE PENINSULA. EXPECT A COLD COMMUTE
TO WORK AND SCHOOL. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AM RUSH WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S NORTHWEST INTERIOR...LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AROUND THE
ORLANDO METRO AND MIDDLE/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FURTHER
SOUTHWARD AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WIND CHILL READINGS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE MAY BE BETWEEN 32F-35F
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA CTY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES
DURING THE DAY WITH THE CENTER OF A LARGER HIGH PRESSURE CELL MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
7-10 MPH WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST VEERING TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME MORNING HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 30S NORTH...UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AROUND THE ORLANDO METRO AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...40 DEGREES TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE COAST
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE TREASURE
COAST.

IN REGARDS TO THE PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH...MAV NUMBERS COOLER THAN
NAM-WRF NUMBERS FROM LATEST MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
HIGHER THAT AREAS OF FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS LAKE...VOLUSIA...
SEMINOLE AND NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTIES. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
ELSE MINUS MARTIN COUNTY AND WORD IN ZONES...MAINLY FOR RURAL
AREAS...OUTSIDE OF THE ORLANDO METRO AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THU-SAT...LARGE CTRL-ERN CONUS MID-UPR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE
WX PATTERN. HI PRESSURE RIDGE GETS ABSORBED BY THE LARGE REINFORCING
ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH BY LATE THU...WITHY SURGE OF STRONG NRLY
WINDS RENEWING STRONG ADVECTION OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE STATE FROM
THU INTO FRI. MINS NR TO BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN PSBL ALONG/NORTH
OF I-4...WITH GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING WCI'S AOB 32F ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO LAKE OKEE AND BOTTOMING OUT NR 20F ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA. IN
AREAS THAT DON'T FREEZE...WILL EVENTUALLY NEED WATCH/ADVISORY FOR
LOW WCI'S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA THU NGT/FRI AM. MAXES AROUND
60-65F THU AND ONLY IN THE L50S NORTH TO L60S SOUTH ON FRI. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW COLD SPRINKLES TO FALL OUT A MARINE SC
DECK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVER ATLC...AND EDGE TWD THE COAST. COLD AGAIN AREAWIDE FRI NGT/SAT
MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 30S OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN TREASURE COAST
COS...AND  OVER THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BREVARD. EVEN A FEW U20S PSBL
ACROSS WIND-SHELTERED NRN INTR AREAS. WILL LKLY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
WATCHES FOR FREEZING TEMPS COME OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW FCSTS. TEMPS
STILL COOL ON SAT AS WESTERN EXTENT OF LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES
TWD NORTH FL. MAXES U50S/60F NORTH TO M-U60S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EVENT SUN MORNING AS WEAKENING HIGH SETTLES OVER THE PENINSULA
...THOUGH PRETTY FAR OUT IN TIME. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATE
ARRIVING GFS ENSEMBLE MOS IS ABOUT 5-8F WARMER THAN THE OP-MOS FOR
MINS FOR BOTH 12Z SAT AND SUN.

SUN-TUE...SHORT LIVED MODERATION OF TEMPS SUN AFTN (M-U60S) AS YET
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE LONGER WAVE
FEATURE BY SUN NGT. EXTENT OF COOL DOWN DOESN'T LOOK AS SEVERE AS
THEIR IS A TRAILING SHORT WAVE RIGHT BEHIND THE LEAD WHICH ACTUALLY
SERVES TO DRIVE THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR FARTHER WEST TWD THE
SRN PLAINS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION....SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 8AM NORTH
BETWEEN KDAB & KLEE...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR OFFSHORE LEGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 7 AM (12Z) AS NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS OPPOSE THE WARMER GULF STREAM AND WILL BE SLOWER
TO DECREASE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 10-15 KTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 6-7 FT OFFSHORE WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT 10-15 KTS AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

RESPITE FROM MARINE HAZARDS SHORT-LIVED AS NEXT COLD FRONT AND
ATTEDNANT NRLY SURGE DRIVES WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS
BY AROUND SUNSET THU...AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT FRI AND INTO SAT.
NO DOUBT AS TO THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR REISSUANCE OF SCA BY LATER ON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD DOWN THE
PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT.
THOUGH MARGINAL...EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...RH VALUES
SHOULD FALL JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR 4-5 HRS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THU AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SAVE FOR MARTIN/EASTERN SAINT LUCIE COS AS DRIER
AIR LOOKS TO PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN VERY LOW MIN
RH'S...EVEN WITH INCREASING CAA COUNTERING DIURNAL TEMP RISE DURING
THE AFTN. MIN RH PROGS SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIAL RFW EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE INTR FRI...AND FOR THE NORTH-CTRL INTR ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  35  60  34 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  64  40  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  40  64  41 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  68  41  64  44 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING FROM FLAGLER BEACH
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI