Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSISTED BY COLD AIR
ALOFT AND CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVITY ENTERING THE I-4 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EVENING. WL KEEP MENTION OF SCT STORMS IN THE EVENING
WITH GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 9 PM.

SUNDAY...UPR LOW WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD WHILE CONTINUING TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. WENT WITH A LITTLE COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO SOME
EXPECTED DRYING OF AIRMASS.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW GIVES WAY TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...STUBBORN TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST/MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WET AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...POP/RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BACK OFF TOWARD THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS...30/40
AFTERNOON AND 20 EVENING...AS A MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM. UPPER
TROUGH STILL HAUNTING THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES AROUND THEIR CLIMO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TUE-SAT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL TO
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK. WEAK
RIDGING COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH EAST/WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM
SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH CHAOTIC AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW FURTHER RIDGING AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH WOULD CALL FOR SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGHS & LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT MVFR WITH ISOLD IFR IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 01Z WITH IMPROVING
CIGS AND REDUCED RAINFALL COVERAGE AFT 02Z. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED MIFG/BR OVER INLAND SITES FROM 08Z-
11Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SLOWLY DEPARTING UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER LAND AREAS WITH STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SUN-
MON. RIDGING FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA WED AND THU
RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW AGAIN. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY THU AS
RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WINDS 15 KNOT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS ON BOTH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LAKES-RIVERS ON THE MAINLAND
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY FOR APPROACHING WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  70  89 /  30  50  20  30
MCO  71  88  70  90 /  30  50  20  30
MLB  71  86  70  87 /  30  50  20  30
VRB  72  86  69  88 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-062100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
335 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH...AND DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF COOL AIR ALOFT...WITH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
TODAY. AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER...HALT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY AND HEAD INDOORS. DEATHS AND INJURIES FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES INCREASE MARKEDLY IN JUNE. DONT BECOME A STATISTIC

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AGAIN TODAY...ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVER LAND WILL PUSH RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...
AND THERE IS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
226 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FLZ064-061930-
MARTIN-
226 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARTIN
COUNTY...

AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY
...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STRONG STORMS INCLUDE HOBE SOUND
BEACH...JOHNATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK AND JUPITER ISLAND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.

JP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
634 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

FLZ045-053-062315-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
634 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 629 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF HARMONY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THE
STORM WILL BE...NEAR HOLOPAW AT 640 PM EDT. OVER US 192 AT 645
PM...NEAR HARMONY AT 650 PM EDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. BRIEF PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. SHELTER INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

MOSES