Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
221 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO BIG WEATHER SYSTEM HITTING THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE ARRIVES TOMORROW/THURSDAY...AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM HITS MONDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY EVENING OF NEXT WEEK. QUIET AND COLD TONIGHT.

.TONIGHT...RIDGING OVERHEAD TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST POTENTIAL IS
HIGH OVER THE NRN CWA...WILL POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 30S. TO THE SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT MORE PATCHY FROST
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY EARLY
THIS EVENING TO SEE IF TRENDS REQUIRE THE ADVISORY TO BE EXPANDED
SOUTH.

.THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD AHEAD AS BIG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST.
THIS IS A VERY ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH MANY FACTORS COMING INTO PLAY
FOR DEEP FORCING. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES EAST IT BECOMES
SHARPLY NEGATIVE WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ISENTROPIC RESPONSE IS IMPRESSIVE. AS THE LOW LEVELS OCCLUDE AN
IMPRESSIVE TROWAL DEVELOPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWEST THROUGH
WISCONSIN. AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH MIXING RATIOS PUSHING 6G/KG AT 750MB AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
MODERATE TO STRONG. SATURATION IS QUICK AND WILL BE LIKE A WALL
OF WATER ARRIVING. THE DRY FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL BE EASILY
CONQUERED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/TROWAL SWING
QUICKLY NORTH WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS AND THE
NAM DIVERGE. THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS TAKES THE
MOISTURE AXIS WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS/S DRY
SLOT WOULD SHUT THINGS OFF QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HEDGE AT THIS POINT AND KEEP THE POPS FAIRLY
HIGH AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TRENDS.
WITH THE SYSTEM OCCLUDING AND CLOSING OFF ALOFT...WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH DECAYING UPPER LOW. THAT MEANS BANDS OF LIGHTER PRECIP AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS/COOL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN AS
THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO A ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR DRIEST PERIOD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL BE FASTER...BUT SHOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE
AREA A GOOD DRINK ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE RAIN
NORTHEAST AFTER 19Z THURSDAY AT KMSN...AND BY 00Z FRIDAY AT THE
EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS GATHERS
STRENGTH AS IS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BRISK EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WOULD GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET...LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...05
AVIATION/MARINE...08

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