Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...

LATEST RUC SHOW ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 21
AND 00Z...ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION...
INCREASING PRECIP WATER TO 2.2 INCHES. RATHER STRONG CAP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT WITH CIN AROUND 300 J/KG
SOUTHEAST. CAP WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
BREAKS AROUND 22Z IN FAR WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
JUST AFTER 02Z IN THE FAR EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOME DENSE CIRRUS MAINLY IN THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW
POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND NEAR 70 OVER
NORTHWEST IL. THEREFORE EXPECT MEAN LAYER CAPE OF OVER 1800 J/KG
JUST AS CAP BREAKS.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL WINDOW FOR SUPERCELLS...ONLY AROUND 1 HOUR
OR SO RIGHT AS CAP BREAKS BEFORE WIND PROFILE BECOMES MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. MODIFIED SOUNDING 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 17 KNOTS
WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR 30 KNOTS. 0-6 BULK SHEAR NOT MUCH HIGHER...BUT
IS NEAR 40 KNOTS...JUST AFTER CAP BREAKS. 01Z RUC SOUNDINGS AT MKX
HAVE HELICITY AROUND 285...EHI AT 3.3...BRN AROUND 23 WITH SWEAT
INDEX RISING TO 415 AT 02Z.

THEREFORE RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS REASONABLE. MAIN RISK IS HIGH
WINDS. WET BULB ZERO RATHER HIGH AT 12700 FT SO HAIL THREAT
SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED. SUPER CELL/TORNADO RISK NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTHEAST.

MESO MODELS HAVE ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND WHERE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THEN ANOTHER LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT.

GOOD PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN OVER LAKE HURON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z GFS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY
BUT MID LEVELS VERY DRY SO WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER POSSIBILITY...BUT
SOME CU/SC COULD DEVELOP BY EVENING. AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
500MB UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES...AND
ENOUGH CAPE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GIVE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN
MAINLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

ON WEDNESDAY STILL IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE LOW BUT GFS
SOUNDING START TO DEVELOP A CAP AROUND 6 THSD FT.

ON THURSDAY ECMWF BUILDS A WEAK RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN WHILE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  PREFER ECMWF.

THEN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

GFS BRINGS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS TAF SITES FROM 22Z TODAY TO 03Z SUNDAY. MAY SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...AND GUSTY WINDS...AT TAF SITES WITH ANY
OF THE STORMS.

WINDS SHIFT WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING...AND
INCREASE IN SPEED WITH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL JUST MENTION
THIS POSSIBILITY IN BODY OF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
352 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-281100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
352 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO EASTERN IOWA. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN HAZARD. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-281100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
352 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO EASTERN IOWA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND TO
THE NEARSHORE AND ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY...AS FREQUENT WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
756 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARDEEVILLE             43.53N 89.30W
06/27/2009  E50 MPH          COLUMBIA           WI   PUBLIC

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
805 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE PARDEEVILLE       43.55N 89.25W
06/27/2009                   COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A BARN ROOF WAS TORN OFF BY STRONG WINDS.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
807 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE PARDEEVILLE        43.56N 89.26W
06/27/2009                   COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 44 AND HIGHWAY 33 TO THE
            NORTHEAST OF PARDEEVILLE.

&&

LAMERS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>