Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
414 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

UPDATED TO ADD MARINE HEADLINES TO END OF PRODUCT

FORECAST FOCUS ON WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAKER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WAS FOUND OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
SUPERIOR.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS
ORGANIZING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTING
TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND HEADING THIS
WAY.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE IS WINTER STORM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
TONIGHT OVER ARKANSAS...THEN MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE LOW THEN
MOVES TO NEAR DETROIT BY 12Z SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.

MAIN PLAYER IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA IS THE STRONG 600MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
BAND COINCIDES WITH DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO HAS POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TAP
INTO...THOUGH LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
OTHER FEATURES INCLUDE POTENTIAL UPPER JET DIVERGENCE COUPLING
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM...LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
EXPECTED TO HAVE A WIDE RANGE...FROM AROUND 0.10 INCHES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...TO AROUND 1.00 INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES/WINDS...AGREE WITH ROEBBER
NEURAL NETWORK OF HEAVY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 8 TO 1 TO 10
TO 1 RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
RATIOS MAY RISE SOME...ESPECIALLY INLAND TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

WOULD EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES SOUTHWEST TO ROCK AND WALWORTH
COUNTIES...WHERE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS PLACED. EXPECT LOWER
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA COUNTY AREA
DUE TO RAIN OCCURRING AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WOULD BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE MAIN BAND. IN CASE THE SYSTEM DEEPENDS MORE AND TRACKS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...INCLUDED DANE...LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES.

QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

GFS 500MB MEAN STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH INTO THE
FIRST PART OF APRIL. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE ECMWF OF A
PATTERN SHIFT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OR EVEN SLIGHT
RIDGING IN THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. AFTER THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVES OUT...THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY LULL ON
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES AIM ON TUESDAY.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW IS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
ARE A BIT DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION.

HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THE PRECIP BEGINS THERE COULD BE RAIN SNOW
MIXTURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY
ALL RAIN AT THE ONSET. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY AT
LEAST SOME SOLAR RADIATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND A SURGE OF LOW
AND MID LEVEL WAA...IT APPEARS MOST OF SOUTHERN WI WILL SEE ALL
RAIN.

EVENTUALLY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH LATER IN THE DAY AND THE FLOW
CHANGES TO THE WEST...CRITICAL THICKNESSES COLLAPSE AND 850MB
TEMPS COOL BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVERY FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE EXTENDED...WILL KEEP US
ON HEIGHTENED ALERT FOR WORSENING OF EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND
APPROACHES WI. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL WRAP UP AND AROUND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIP COULD
START AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON AS A VERY WET SNOW AT MSN AND A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AT MKE/ENW. RAIN EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT
MKE/ENW AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. FORECAST TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 5 INCHES AT MSN AND UP TO 5 AT MKE/ENW AT THIS TIME.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT.  AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WINDS/WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WINDS HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE...OR AT LEAST
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE TWO FAR SOUTHEAST WI
NEARSHORE ZONES...SO GALE WATCH POSTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ051-052-058>060-063>065-067>070.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-644.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WATCH FROM MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

SHORT TERM...08/WOOD
LONG TERM...24/FRANKS
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>