Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
202 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

STACKED STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ROLLS NNE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE STRETCHING TO THE SE OF THE LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. SFC COLD FRONT LINED UP WELL WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ALL THIS PROVIDES GOOD DEEP UVV WITH THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.

FIRST ROUND OF RAIN THIS MORNING IS EXITING THE NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN/CONVECTION WITH THE ABOVE DYNAMICS IS ALREADY KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE WI/IL
BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST WAVE...AND WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FOR
THE SECOND. THE RAIN ISN/T HEAVY ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...MORE THE NUISANCE VARIETY. SOME OF OUR RIVERS ARE
RESPONDING...ESPECIALLY THE ROCK RIVER WHICH WAS ALREADY STRESSED.
WE WILL BE UPDATING THESE FORECASTS AS THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GET
PROCESSED.

THE RAIN SHOULD BLOW OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA RIGHT AROUND 06Z.

DRIER...COOLER AIR ARRIVES POST FRONTAL WITH FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT COMES CLOSE TO
CLIPPING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS S/W SHOULD ROLL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND UP THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COLUMN SHOULD
BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP AND IT/S NOT WORTH THE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

STILL ADVERTISING A STRONG LOW ROLLING UP HERE ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS VERY CONSISTENT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON
TIMING AND TRACK. HPC HAS STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE ECMWF AND
WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK. THERMAL CONSIDERATIONS BRING THE THREAT
FOR RAIN/SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH RAIN IN THE SE. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRIP OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE. IT IS LATE IN MARCH AND TEMPS NEED TO BE A BIT
COLDER FOR ALL SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TODAY...REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA TONIGHT.  AFTER A
SHORT BREAK...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH IFR VISBYS AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z.  A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY BY 06Z AS WELL. EXPECT A MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
TODAY...REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH WAVES FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...DV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
615 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-251200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
615 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PORTIONS OF THE ROCK RIVER FROM LAKE KOSHKONONG SOUTH TO THE
ILLINOIS BORDER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTH INTO CANADA
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL EXCEED ONE INCH IN MANY AREAS
WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON THE ROCK RIVER...AND MAY
CAUSE SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
ADDITIONALLY...MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING IN PLACES THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST RAINFALL...MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH
AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ROCK RIVER...ALONG WITH SEVERAL
OTHER RIVERS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL AND WIND GUST
MEASUREMENTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-251200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
615 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FOR STRONG WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL EASE FOR A TIME...THEN STRENGTHEN AS
THEY BECOME SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL FALL BELOW GALE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
SATURDAY.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1054 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELOIT                  42.52N 89.02W
03/24/2009                   ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ACROSS
            ROCK COUNTY. POWER LINES IN TREES...POSSIBLE FIRES. SOME
            POWER OUTAGES

&&

PZABEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE BROOKLYN          42.87N 89.36W
03/24/2009  M57.00 MPH       DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PZABEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE JANESVILLE         42.64N 88.96W
03/24/2009                   ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STURDY STRUCTURE HOUSING 30 COWS BLOWN OVER BY WIND. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

PZABEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1238 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N KENOSHA             42.61N 87.82W
03/25/2009                   KENOSHA            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KENOSHA POLICE REPORT STREET SIGNS BLOWN DOWN AND INTO
            FENCING AT INTERSECTION OF 18TH STREET AND 22ND AVENUE.
            LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND BLOWN DOWN. FENCE POSTS PULLED
            OUT OF GROUND.

&&

REM