Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...

WILL DOWNGRADE WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES.

12Z NAM/GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW QUESTIONABLE IN
THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER GFS A BIT COOLER ACROSS MARQUETTE GREEN LAKE AND NORTHWEST
FOND DU LAC COUNTIES. SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP
INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT MAINLY RAIN IN LIGHTER PRECIP. INITIAL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS NOW TAKEN PLACE WITH SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING
A BIT. EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY...ESPECIALLY FAR
SOUTHEAST. MAIN THREAT IN ADVISORY AREA WOULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
AND HAIL/SLEET MIX INITIALLY...THEN THE SWITCHOVER LATER THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE LOW.

MAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF ON BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. OTHER THAN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS...NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER BY THE TIME SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW POTENTIAL. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

COLD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS POTENTIAL OF NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LAKE CLOUDS. INVERSIONS JUST
BELOW 3 THSD FT SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WOULD BE MAINLY FLURRIES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT MAIN PRECIP WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM
MEXICO TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT PRECIP FROM THIS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY...WITH GFS GOING
MORE ZONAL.

ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH NEXT TROUGH TO THE WEST...BRINGING IT INTO
ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY...WITH A WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER SHORTWAVE
ON GFS. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHICH WILL BE CORRECT...SO WENT WITH
A QUICKER BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE
CONDITIONS COULD GET FOGGY AT TIMES. HEAVIEST PCPN PERIOD IS
ROUGHLY UNTIL 03Z. COULD SEE A MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 03Z AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST.

.MARINE...GALE WARNING POSTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
INCREASING EAST WINDS TURN NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40KTS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
WINDS WILL RELAX BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ065-066-069>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-
     047-051-052-056>059-062.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...07

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