Frost Advisory 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST FOCUS ON THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL
FOR FROST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  SEVERAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORMING JUST NORTH OF STRONG WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MO INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTERRUPTING THETA-E TRANSPORT NORTHWARD TODAY.  ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WEAKENED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER SALVATION LIES UPSTREAM IN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER ERN NE/SD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THIS
SHORT WAVE TIES INTO ENHANCED FORCING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
INCREASING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA.  WITH REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING FARTHER SOUTH...THINKING
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN INDICATED BY GFS/NAM AND
ALSO HPC.  DESPITE WEAKENING MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS TO LESS THAN
10KTS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
REMAINS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND POINTS EAST.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET DOES CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST SO WL GO WITH HIGHEST QPF IN MY FAR
SOUTHEAST OF AROUND JUST OVER 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WITHOUT MOISTURE INTERRUPTION...PRECIP WATER WAS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES.
3 HOUR FFG REMAINS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO EVENING
SHIFT WL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS RAIN FALLS INTO DRIER LOW LEVELS.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING.

HUNG ONTO PRECIP THREAT THROUGH 09Z IN THE EAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE.  OTHERWISE COOL...DRY BLUSTERY AIR
TO SWEEP ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY.  WINDS DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG INVERSION SETS UP
OVER WESTERN CWA WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.  HENCE WL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FROST.  A BIT
MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN THE EAST SO ANY FROST EXPECTED TO BE
MORE PATCHY.  LESS OF A FROST THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
AS GFS/CANADIAN/UKMT HAVE ALL FLIPPED OVER TO THE COOLER...MORE
UNSETTLED HI RES ECMWF SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  LARGE SCALE
RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST EXTENDS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PREVENTING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE FROM BREAKING OFF AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN CONUS.  HENCE
PERSISTENT RIDGING RESULTS IN BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING COOL FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO BEEF UP POPS TO CHANCE
BUT INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.  ECMWF SHOWING MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WED NGT BUT ATMOSPHERE ON THE
DRY SIDE SO WL HOLD OFF FROM INTRODUCING ANY POPS AT THIS POINT.  AS
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO INCREASE LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MORE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING
AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...TROUGH EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...KEYING ON EVOLVING ACTIVITY IN WESTERN IOWA
AT THE MOMENT. WILL BRING IFR CELINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. PLENTY OF
THESE TO OUR SW ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWS. BELIEVE THIS WILL ADVECT IN
WITH TIME THIS EVENING. WINDS TO REV UP FROM THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE
OF TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE HOISTED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 09Z/16 TO 00Z/17.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...MBK
AVIATION/MARINE...PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-161045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER IN KENOSHA COUNTY AND THE ROCK RIVER
AT AFTON IN ROCK COUNTY ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER IN KENOSHA COUNTY AND THE ROCK RIVER
AT AFTON IN ROCK COUNTY ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING.

FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-161045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLLAR
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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