Freeze Warning 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TODAY-
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST UPPER JET CORE PLACING SRN WI IN
FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP/CONVECTIVE SWATH TIED UP WITH SURFACE/850 FRONTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS TO WARRANT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. ANOTHER FACTOR
AT PLAY IS WITH LOW STRENGTHENING OFF TO OUR EAST...GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT AND WINDS GO NNE AND DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND
12C. NOT THE GREATEST BUT STILL SOME ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN
FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GFS SUGGESTS BEST FETCH
THIS MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS A PERSISTENT NNE FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THESE FACTORS CONVERGE.

TONIGHT-
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A HIGH
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NOT A STRONG HIGH BY ANY MEANS BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR
AND EVOLVING LIGHT WINDS TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION...PER GOING GRIDS. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.

SATURDAY-
STRONG DYNAMICAL SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH. PRECIP GENERATED IS
FRONTAL IN NATURE. UPPER JET STRUCTURE NOT OVERLY SUPPOTIVE AND
MOSITURE LOOKS MEAGHER. HOWEVER SOME 700 OMEGA AND 1000/850
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION INGREDIENTS CHARTS SHOWING SOME OVERLAY OF
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SATURATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY (INSTABILITY).
AT THE MOMENT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS BUT SOME SMALL POPS
DEFINITELY WORTHY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-
LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZE WILL BE ON. DRY AND COLDER AIR ADVECT INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON IN THE
CWA. 925 MB TEMPS DROP TO -3C TO -4C WHICH EASILY TRANSLATE TO
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH WHICH LIKELY BECOME
A WARNING AND OFFICIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON.

SUNDAY-
ONCE AGAIN A PERIOD SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE
KEEPING THINGS QUIET. 925 MILLIBAR TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING
DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS A BIT MORE
ROBUST AND QUICKER WITH ISENTROPIC FORCING AND RETURN OF
MOISTURE...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRIER SE FLOW KEEPING THINGS
MORE AT BAY ACROSS IOWA/ILLINOIS. ECMWF 850 TEMPS SUPPORT THE MIX
THOUGH THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A LIQUID SCENARIO. WILL KEEP THE
EITHER/OR LOOK IN THE GRIDS.

MONDAY-
MUCH MORE CYCLOGENESIS NOTED ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF THOUGH
ECMWF DOES BLOSSOM QPF ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI WITH EAST/WEST
ORIENTED 150 KNOTS 200-300 MILLIBAR JET CORE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SKEW
MOST ORGANIZED QPF TO OUR NORTH...SO AGAIN THE GOING CHANCE LOOKS
FINE AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST MORE OF A LIQUID SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WHILE GFS SHOWING SURFACE/850 RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS A SPRAWLING HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA WITH A QPF PATTERN REFLECTING THE STRONGER ECMWF. IN ALL
CASES APPEARS WE CAN GET AWAY WITH GOING DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN
MENTIONED FOR TODAY WILL BE DETERMINED BY TRENDS AT ISSUANCE...AND
PROBABLY LIMITED TO LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE
KENW AND KMKE SITES AT MOST. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
KENOSHA NEARSHORE AND THE SOUTH MID-LAKE BUOY AT 07Z...WITH 20 KNOT
GUSTS AT NRN BUOY. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL HOLD JUST
BELOW CRITERIA...FAVORABLE FETCH WILL BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
WINDS SLACKEN A BIT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO THIS EVENING
BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY START/STOP TIMES AS IS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT WITH CONVERGENCE OF SFC WINDS OUT IN MID LAKE...WILL
NOT MENTION. NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COMES WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION/MARINE...REM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>