Flood Watch 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
815 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
EXPECT PATCHY FOG FOR A TIME IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH...ESPECIALLY IN
EAST.

CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN MY FAR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1 INCH BY 00Z/27 WHICH IS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY.  STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
THETA-E RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTING UP JUST SOUTH OF BORDER.  INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND SATURATION
THICKNESS VALUES HINTING AT HEAVIER RAINFALL FALLING NORTH OF
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COULD BE RAINFALL EXCEEDING ONE INCH
IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN 3 TO 6 HOURS TIME.  HOWEVER CONSIDERING RAPID
MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE EAST AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WILL
HOLD OFF ON AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED
TO REEVALUATE. HAVE ISSUED POINT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NEW MUNSTER.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH ONGOING WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES.  SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE HIGHER SNOWFALL THAN ONGOING FORECAST AS MORE
SLEET AND SNOW EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF AREA MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE
SURFACE.  HENCE POSTED GALE WATCH INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  WL LIKELY
NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ060-064-065.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ062-063.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ046-047.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR WIZ051-052-056>059.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM 4 PM CST THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.
&&

MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-270000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
ADVANCE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CAUSE A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN.

PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF GLAZING FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OF ICE. HENCE AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA
FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO PORTAGE...BEAVER DAM...FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GREEN LAKE AND
MONTELLO AREAS WHERE MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

LESS AMOUNTS OF ICING AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM DODGEVILLE TO
MADISON...JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING ONE INCH
MAY CAUSE SEVERAL RIVERS TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE IN FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOW AND ICE REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED WITH THIS UPCOMING WINTER
STORM.

LMZ643>646-270000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
DIE DOWN AND WAVES SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK