Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
218 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SURE. SFC LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SW WI AND IA.
BNDRY IS GETTING A SURGE SOUTH FROM CONVECTION THAT MOVED OUT OF
IOWA AND IS ROLLING ACROSS SRN WI. H8 BNDRY REMAINS FARTHER BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ONCE THIS INITIAL CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH
WE SHOULD ENTER INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EPISODIC ELEVATED
CONVECTION ROLLING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE UPPER JET IS IMPRESSIVE AND PUTS THE CROSS HAIRS OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE FEED/CHANNEL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE H8 LLJ ISN/T VERY STRONG...BUT DOES SUGGEST CONTINUED
WAA. THIS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOUT 1.8-2.0 INCHES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THIS FIRST
ROUND COMES THROUGH...THEN SHIFT INTO A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
REGIME...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

GIVEN SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY...BELIEVE WE
RUN THE RISK OF SOME FLASH FLOODING THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE FIRST
STORM HAS PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY. IT
ISN/T GOING TO TAKE MUCH. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY MILD.
GREAT STRETCH COMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE CONVECTION.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TSTORM
CHANCES GOING RIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TIMING OF THESE TRICKY...BUT
PLENTY OF STORMS BACK INTO IOWA TO KEEP THINGS ACTIVE INTO THE
NIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS/IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS.

.MARINE...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO SLACKEN AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO THUS WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR THE SMALL
CRAFT TO EXPIRE NATURALLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ062>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ644>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1055 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-101100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1055 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM. THIS INCLUDES THE
MADISON...JANESVILLE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...AND KENOSHA AREAS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN UNTIL 6 PM.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL SHIFT EAST FROM IOWA AND ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN
1 PM AND 5 PM...WHILE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-101100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1055 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FOR PORT WASHINGTON
TO WINTHROP HARBOR UNTIL 3 PM FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON UNTIL 6 PM.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

COLLAR
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BERLIN              42.97N 88.13W
08/08/2009                   WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT. TREE 8 INCHES IN DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN INTO
            WOODLAND CT RD. WIND ESTIMATED 50MPH.

&&

ZABEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

WIZ067-091800-
LAFAYETTE-
1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY TO AFFECT LAFAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 1232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 68 MILES WEST OF DARLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THE STORM WILL REACH WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY AROUND 125 PM.

THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS ALSO A BIG HAZRAD WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 30
MINUTES IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD LAFAYETTE COUNTY.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
151 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

WIZ068-091915-
GREEN-
151 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD GREEN COUNTY...

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES WEST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONROE AND MONROE AIRPORT BY 215 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND...BUT IF IT RESTRENGTHENS
AGAIN...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO GREEN COUNTY.

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
213 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHULLSBURG              42.57N 90.23W
08/09/2009  E50 MPH          LAFAYETTE          WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SHULLSBURG FD REPORT. ALSO COUPLE ROADS WITH WATER OVER
            THEM SOUTH OF SHULLSBURG.

&&

ZABEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
222 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E NEW DIGGINGS        42.54N 90.28W
08/09/2009                   LAFAYETTE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FARM FIELDS AND COUNTY ROAD W FLOODED WITH WATER FLOWING
            OVER IN MANY PLACES. WATER OVER ROAD ABOUT 1.5 FT DEEP.

&&

ZABEL